地缘关系视角下的中国粮食进口贸易安全测度  

Security Measurement of China’s Grain Import Trade from the Perspective of Geographical Relations

作　　者：刘锴 柴聪[1,2] LIU Kai;CHAI Cong(Key Research Base of Humanities and Social Sciences of the Ministry Education,Center for Studies of Marine Economy and Sustainable Development,Liaoning Normal University,Dalian 116029,China;Institute of Marine Sustainable Development,Liaoning Normal University,Dalian 116029,China)

机构地区：[1]教育部人文社科重点研究基地,辽宁师范大学海洋经济与可持续发展研究中心,辽宁大连116029 [2]辽宁师范大学海洋可持续发展研究院,辽宁大连116029

出　　处：《资源开发与市场》2022年第4期399-406,共8页Resource Development & Market

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(编号:42076222);辽宁省教育厅项目(编号:LJKZ0977)。

摘　　要：单边主义、保护主义蔓延使得国际贸易摩擦频发,我国粮食进口贸易安全存在一定风险。应用粮食贸易依赖指数评述我国对粮食进口国的依赖程度,结合国际地缘关系强度指数测算粮食进口贸易风险水平,进而划定其安全类型。结果表明:(1)我国粮食总需求的14%需稳定依赖进口,进口粮食中大豆超过80%。(2)大豆进口主要来自巴西和美国,对美国的依赖性最强。(3)我国和各粮食进口国之间地缘关系强度不平衡。(4)大米进口来源国家供应安全性最高。总体上,我国粮食进口总体处于安全状态,但进口来源国的供应安全存在结构性风险,风险主要存在于大豆这一粮食品种,主要源于美国。The spread of unilateralism and protectionism had caused frequent international trade frictions,posing risks to the security of China’s food import trade.This paper reviewed the degree of China’s dependence on grain importing countries by using the grain trade dependence index,measured the risk level of China’s grain import trade by combining with the international geopolitical relationship intensity index,and then delimited its security type.The results showed that:(1)14%of China’s total grain demand was steadily dependent on imports,of which soybean was more than 80%.(2)Soybean imports mainly came from Brazil and the United States,with the strongest dependence on the United States.(3)The intensity of geographical relationship between China and other grain importing countries was unbalanced.(4)Rice import source countries had the highest security of supply.China’s grain imports were generally safe,but there were structural risks in the supply security of the source countries.The risk was mainly in the soybean variety,which originated mainly in the United States.

关 键 词：粮食进口 贸易安全 依赖性 地缘关系 

分 类 号：F752.62[经济管理—国际贸易]