1999-2019年我国非正规经济规模测算  

Measurement and calculation of scale of informal economy in China from1999 to 2019

作　　者：郭海明 王彤 许梅 GUO Haiming;WANG Tong;XU Mei(School of Statistics,Lanzhou University of Finance and Economics,Lanzhou 730030,China)

机构地区：[1]兰州财经大学统计学院,兰州730030

出　　处：《天津商业大学学报》2022年第2期52-60,共9页Journal of Tianjin University of Commerce

基　　金：甘肃省哲学社会科学规划项目“甘肃省城乡融合发展统计测评研究”(2021YB072)。

摘　　要：非正规经济作为尚未被国民经济监测和核算的经济活动,长期伴随着正规经济活动而客观存在。自从1993年国际劳工组织对其概念进行界定以来,理论界的有关研究日渐深化。基于新的时代背景,在界定非正规经济的概念及其特征的基础上,采用可变参数状态空间模型和修正后现金比率法对1999-2019年我国的非正规经济规模进行测算,并对这两种方法的测算结果进行分析比较。最终发现,利用状态空间模型和现金比率法测算非正规经济占GDP的比重分别为3%~20%和7%~32%,两种方法测算结果存在一定差异性,但从理论和实践方面考察,可变参数状态空间模型的测算更为准确,这为未来我国非正规经济核算方法的完善提供了一定参考。The informal economy,as an economic activity which hasn’t been monitored and calculated by the national economy,has always been accompanied by the formal economic activities.Since the definition of the concept of informal economy by the International Labor Organization in 1993,the relevant research in the theoretical circle has been deepening gradually.Under the background of new era,the paper defines the concept and characteristics of informal economy,uses the variable parameter state space model and the modified cash ratio method to measure and calculate the scale of informal economy from 1999 to 2019 in China,and makes a comparative analysis of the results of two methods.Through specific calculation,it is found that the proportion of informal economy in GDP calculated by state space model and cash ratio method is 3%~20%and 7%~32%respectively,and there are some differences between two methods.However,in view of the investigation in theory and in practice,the measurement and calculation of state space model is more precise,which provides a reference for the improvement of informal economy accounting method in China in in the future.

关 键 词：非正规经济 经济核算 状态空间模型 现金比率法 

分 类 号：F222.33[经济管理—国民经济]