安阳市农业干旱脆弱性评价及生态因子作用识别  

Evaluation of Agricultural Drought Vulnerability and Identification of Ecological Factors in Anyang City

作　　者：李彦彬[1] 王跃雄 杜雪芳 LI Yan-bin;WANG Yue-xiong;DU Xue-fang(North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power,Zhengzhou 450046,Chin)

机构地区：[1]华北水利水电大学,郑州450046

出　　处：《节水灌溉》2022年第3期33-39,共7页Water Saving Irrigation

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(51779093);国家自然科学基金项目(52179015)。

摘　　要：为探究生态因子对农业干旱的影响程度,提高农业干旱脆弱性的评价精度,在总结前人研究经验的基础上,从自然敏感性、社会敏感性、恢复力3个准则层考虑,以安阳市为例选择了包括标准化降水指数、作物水分亏缺指数与生态类因子—温度植被干旱指数(Temperature vegetation dryness index,TVDI)等在内的8项指标来构建农业干旱脆弱性综合评价体系。通过比较评价结果与实际逐年减产率的时空差异来验证综合评价指数的可靠性,并利用因子贡献法分析了温度植被干旱指数对农业干旱脆弱性的影响程度。结果表明:①在2003-2018年间,该市干旱主要受气候环境因子影响,发生频率较高,大约为63%。综合评价指数能较好识别干旱,且含TVDI的评价精度比不含TVDI的提高了12.5%;②在时空分布上,评价结果与逐年减产率的变化趋势基本一致,且该市干旱主要发生在太行山脉以西的北部平原;③生态类因子在脆弱性指标体系中的贡献程度较高,温度植被干旱指数在敏感性因子与自然型因子中所占的比例最大可分别达到10%与23%,在未来农业干旱脆弱性研究中应重视起生态类因子对干旱的影响。In order to explore the impact of ecological factors on agricultural drought and improve the evaluation accuracy of agricultural drought vulnerability,based on the summary of previous research experience,this study considered three criteria levels of natural sensitivity,social sensitivity,and resilience.Taking Anyang City as an example,eight indexes including standardized precipitation index,crop water deficit index and ecological factor of Temperature Vegetation Dryness index(TVDI)were selected to construct the comprehensive evaluation system of agricultural drought vulnerability.The reliability of the evaluation model was verified by comparing the evaluation results with the actual annual yield reduction rate.The factor contribution analysis method was used to analyze the influence of temperature vegetation drought index on drought vulnerability.The results showed that:①from 2003 to 2018,the city′s drought was mainly affected by climate and environmental factors,with a high frequency of about 63%.The comprehensive evaluation model could better identify drought,and the evaluation accuracy with TVDI was 12.5%higher than that without TVDI.②In terms of temporal and spatial distribution,the evaluation result was basically consistent with the change trend of the annual yield reduction rate,and the city′s drought mainly occurred in the northern plain west of the Taihang Mountains.③Ecological factors have a high contribution degree to the vulnerability index system,and the proportion of temperature vegetation drought index in sensitivity factor and natural type factor can reach 10%and 23%respectively,so the impact of ecological factors on drought should be paid more attention in the future study of agricultural drought vulnerability.

关 键 词：农业干旱 脆弱性评价 生态因子 土壤水环境 因子贡献度 温度植被干旱指数 

分 类 号：S271[农业科学—农业水土工程] S423[农业科学—农业工程]