Detection and Attribution of Changes in Thermal Discomfort over China during 1961-2014 and Future Projections  

作　　者：Wanling LI Xin HAO Li WANG Yuqing LI Jiandong LI Huixin LI Tingting HAN 

机构地区：[1]Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters/Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster,Ministry of Education,Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology,Nanjing 210044,China [2]Nansen-Zhu International Research Center,Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100029,China [3]Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Environment Monitoring and Pollution Control,Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center of Atmospheric Environment and Equipment Technology,School of Environmental Science and Engineering,Nanjing University of Information Science&Technology,Nanjing 210044,China

出　　处：《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》2022年第3期456-470,543-552,共25页大气科学进展（英文版）

基　　金：supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.41991283 and 42005014);College Students’Enterprise and Entrepreneurship Education Program of NUIST(Grant No.201910300095Y)。

摘　　要：In this study, variation in the frequency of thermal discomfort days over China during the period of 1961-2014,including heat discomfort days(HDDs) and cold discomfort days(CDDs), and the influence of external forcings on it are discussed. HDDs are the conditions of overheating and overhumidity(represented by humidity index), and CDDs reflect the dangers from cold temperatures and winds(represented by wind chill index). Observations show significant increases(decreases) in the frequency of HDDs(CDDs) over China from 1961 to 2014, with clear regional distinctions. The historical ALL and greenhouse gas(GHG) simulations can sufficiently reproduce the spatial patterns of the observational trend in the frequency of both HDDs and CDDs over China. Further, the impacts of GHG and anthropogenic forcings on the HDDs(CDDs) are detectable over China, except for central and eastern China, based on the optimal fingerprinting method. GHG forcing is identified as a dominant factor for the observational changes in the frequency of HDDs over southern China;GHG and anthropogenic forcings have dominant effects on the variation in the frequency of CDDs over southwestern China. Although trends in the frequency of HDDs and CDDs in historical aerosol forcing simulations seems to be opposite to observations, an aerosol signal fails to be detected. Natural forcing contributes to the observational variation in the frequency of HDDs over northwestern China. In addition, the future projections of thermal discomfort days indicate that Chinese residents will face more threats of heat discomfort and fewer threats of cold discomfort in the future under global warming.

关 键 词：thermal discomfort greenhouse gas anthropogenic influence natural forcing aerosol forcing 

分 类 号：P46[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]