基于SWAT模型的开都河上游气候变化和人类活动对径流的影响  

Impacts of climate change and human activities on runoff in the upper reaches of Kaidu River based on SWAT model

作　　者：陈世雪 玉素甫江·如素力[1] 张发 迪里胡玛尔·阿汗木江 CHEN Shi-xue;YUSUFUJIANG Rusuli;ZHANG Fa;DILIHUMAER Ahanmujiang(Institute of Geographical Science and Tourism,Xinjiang Normal University/Xinjiang Key Laboratory of Environment and Resources in Arid Zone,Urumqi 830054,China)

机构地区：[1]新疆师范大学地理科学与旅游学院/新疆干旱区环境与资源重点实验室,乌鲁木齐830054

出　　处：《湖北农业科学》2022年第5期171-176,共6页Hubei Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：国家自然科学基金NSFC联合基金项目(U1703341);新疆维吾尔自治区重点实验室开放课题(2018D04026)。

摘　　要：基于SWAT模型运用情景分析方法设置3类气候变化和土地利用情景,定量分析气候变化和人类活动对开都河上游径流量的影响。以决定系数R^(2)、Nash-Sutcliffe效率系数NSE和偏差系数PBIAS作为模型的评价指标。结果表明,模型率定期R^(2)、NSE和PBIAS分别为0.85、0.84和6.2%,验证期R2、NSE和PBIAS分别是0.78、0.69和1.6%,说明SWAT模型适用于开都河流域径流模拟;综合情景得出,气候变化是径流变化的主要影响因素。气候变化和人类活动共同作用下年平均径流量减少1.83 m^(3)/s,气候变化导致年平均径流减少1.38 m^(3)/s,占总变化量的75.47%;人类活动导致年平均径流减少0.45 m^(3)/s,占总变化量的24.53%。极端土地利用情景得出,草地情景使年平均径流减少0.27 m^(3)/s,未利用土地情景使年平均径流增加1.32 m^(3)/s;气候变化情景得出,径流变化与降水变化呈现正相关关系,与气温变化呈现负相关关系。降水量减少20%和10%,年平均径流分别减少29.31和14.32 m^(3)/s;降水增加10%和20%,年平均径流分别增加15.72和30.91 m^(3)/s。气温增加1和2℃,年平均径流分别减少0.58和1.12 m^(3)/s。Based on SWAT model,three scenarios of climate change and land use combination were set up by scenario analysis method,and the impacts of climate change and human activities on runoff in the upper reaches of the Kaidu River were quantitatively analyzed.Decision coefficient R^(2),Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient NSE and deviation coefficient PBIAS were used as evaluation indexes of the model.The results were as follows:The model rate was 0.85,0.84 and 6.2% for regular period,and 0.78,0.69 and 1.6% for validation period.It showed that SWAT model was suitable for runoff simulation in Kaidu River Basin.According to the comprehensive scenario,climate change was the main influencing factor of runoff change.Under the combined action of climate change and human activities,the annual average runoff decreased by 1.83 m^(3)/s,and climate change caused the annual average runoff decreased by 1.38 m^(3)/s,accounting for 75.47% of the total variation.Human activities lead to a decrease of 0.45 m^(3)/s in average annual runoff,accounting for 24.53% of the total variation.According to the extreme land use scenario,the grassland scenario reduces the annual average runoff by 0.27 m^(3)/s,while the unused land scenario increases the annual average runoff by 1.32 m^(3)/s;Climate change scenario showed that runoff changes were positively correlated with precipitation changes and negatively correlated with air temperature changes.The precipitation decreased by 20% and 10%,and the annual average runoff decreased by 29.31 and 14.32 m^(3)/s respectively.Precipitation increased by 10% and 20%,and the annual average runoff increased by 15.72 and 30.91 m^(3)/s respectively.The annual average runoff decreases by 0.58 and 1.12 m^(3)/s when the air temperature increases by 1 and 2℃ respectively.

关 键 词：SWAT模型 气候变化 人类活动 径流模拟 开都河流域 情景模拟 

分 类 号：TV121[水利工程—水文学及水资源]