机运女神的计划——论波利比乌斯的反事实虚拟写作  

The Project of Τuχη——On Polybius’ Counterfactual Writing

作　　者：章永乐[1] Zhang Yongle

机构地区：[1]北京大学法学院

出　　处：《政治思想史》2022年第1期1-23,197,共24页Journal of the History of Political Thought

摘　　要：英国历史学家弗格森在其编写的《未曾发生的历史》一书中将波利比乌斯视为某种宗教决定论的始作俑者之一,作为其虚拟历史探讨的对立面。然而,波利比乌斯实际上是一个非常频繁使用反事实虚拟的历史作者。其笔下的“机运”(Τ?χη)在具体的历史行动情境中呈现出的第一面目,并非理性的计划者,而是变幻不定、高深莫测的神灵,她屡屡改变事情的常态发展路径,挫败行动者的理性预期。波利比乌斯对那些符合观察者的理性预期、但未能实现的可能性的探讨,成为反事实虚拟生长的温床。波利比乌斯自觉地运用反事实虚拟探讨事物的原因,以便给那些从事实际政治事务的人带来真正的教益。In Virtual History,Niall Ferguson regards Polybius as one of the sources of so-called religious determinism,the opposite of his approach of virtual history. This portrait is inaccurate. In Polybius’ work,The primary face of Τuχη in concrete historical contexts is a fickle and capricious goddess rather than a rational planner. She shifts the regular path and defeats the rational expectation of historical actors. Polybius’ discussion of the discrepancy between the actual historical path and those defeated regular expectations is the seedbed of counterfactual writing. Polybius consciously uses counterfactual writing to discuss causes and effects in history so as to bring practical lessons to his target readers engaged in political affairs.

关 键 词：波利比乌斯 反事实 机运 

分 类 号：K091[历史地理—历史学]