飞机燃油箱油气空间引燃概率函数预测模型  

Prediction Model for Ignition Probability Function of Ullage in Aircraft Fuel Tank

作　　者：骆亮 裴扬[1,3] 侯鹏 张梦涛 李明锁 LUO Liang;PEI Yang;HOU Peng;ZHANG Mengtao;LI Mingsuo(School of Aeronautics,Northwestern Polytechnical University,Xi'an 710072,Shaanxi,China;CASIC Research Institute of Intelligent Decision Engineering,Wuhan 430040,Hubei,China;Science and Technology on Electro-Optic Control Laboratory,Luoyang 471023,Henan,China)

机构地区：[1]西北工业大学航空学院,陕西西安710072 [2]航天科工智能运筹与信息安全研究院(武汉)有限公司,湖北武汉430040 [3]光电控制技术重点实验室,河南洛阳471023

出　　处：《兵工学报》2022年第2期383-390,共8页Acta Armamentarii

基　　金：航空科学基金项目(20185153032)。

摘　　要：为研究飞机燃油箱的引燃概率函数,通过开展弹丸射击模拟油箱靶标的弹道实验,得到弹丸在不同速度下引燃油箱的情况。提出燃油箱冲击毁伤标准(BC标准),并在实验研究的基础上通过Logistic回归分析得到了飞机燃油箱油气空间引燃概率函数预测模型。研究结果表明:基于BC标准的油气空间引燃概率函数对引燃概率的预测值与经验公式预测值和实验点处频率间的误差较小,模型能够对油箱在给定条件下的引燃概率进行预测且具有良好的精度;研究方法和相关结论可以为飞机燃油箱毁伤判据研究及飞机易损性评估提供参考。The ballistic experiment of shooting a projectile at a simulated fuel tank is made to study the ignition probability function of ullage in aircraft fuel tank,and the conditions of igniting to fuel tank by projectile at different speeds are obtained.The impact damage criterion of fuel tank(BC criterion)is put forward.Based on the experimental research,an ignition probability function prediction model of the ullage in aircraft fuel tank is obtained through Logistic regression analysis.The research results show that the error between the predicted value of the ignition probability function based on BC criterion with the predicted value of the empirical formula and the frequency at experimental point is small,and the proposed prediction model can be used to predict the ignition probability of fuel tank under the given conditions with good accuracy.The research methods and related conclusions can provide a reference for the research on the damage criterion of aircraft fuel tank and the aircraft vulnerability assessment.

关 键 词：飞行器设计 飞机油箱 引燃概率函数 LOGISTIC回归 毁伤判据 

分 类 号：V221[航空宇航科学与技术—飞行器设计]