环境政策工具选择对空气质量影响的久期分析——来自杭州“G20峰会”的证据  

Duration Analysis of the Impact of Environmental Policy Tool Selection on Air Quality—Evidence from the Hangzhou“G20 Summit”

作　　者：李小胜[1] 时辰 张思思 LI Xiao-sheng;SHI Chen;ZHANG Si-si(Anhui University of Finance and Economics,Bengbu 233030 China)

机构地区：[1]安徽财经大学统计与应用数学学院,蚌埠233030

出　　处：《电子科技大学学报（社科版）》2022年第2期39-46,56,共9页Journal of University of Electronic Science and Technology of China(Social Sciences Edition)

基　　金：安徽省哲学社会科学规划重点项目(AHSKZ2018D13).

摘　　要：【目的/意义】合理的环境政策工具是保障可持续发展的重要依据。【设计/方法】运用双重差分法(DID)和基于倾向得分匹配后的双重差分法(PSM-DID),分析了2016年杭州召开“G20峰会”前实行的命令控制型环境政策对空气质量的影响。【结论/发现】(1)长期政策有效改善了空气质量,其效果明显好于短期政策,保障了“G20峰会”前后杭州市空气的优良品质;(2)长期政策创造的蓝天是稳定持续的,“G20峰会”前后空气质量未出现大的波动或反弹现象;(3)“G20峰会”长期政策具有长期效应,长期内空气质量保持良好水平,未出现恶化趋势。在考虑了共同趋势、不同污染物形式、更换不同样本以及选择不同模型后仍然稳健。[Purpose/Significance]Reasonable environmental policy tools are the important basis for sustainable development.[Design/Methodology]In this paper,the Differences-in-Differences(DID)and the Propensity Score Matching-Differences-in-Differences(PSM-DID)based on the propensity score matching are used to analyze the impact of the command-controlled environmental policy on the air quality before the“G20 Summit”held in Hangzhou in 2016.[Conclusions/Findings](1)The long-term policy has effectively improved air quality,and its effect is obviously better than the short-term policy,which guarantees the excellent quality of the air in Hangzhou before and after the“G20 Summit”.(2)The blue sky created by long-term policy is stable and continuous.There is no big fluctuation or rebound in air quality before and after the“G20 Summit”.(3)The long-term policy of the“G20 Summit”has a long-term effect.The air quality has been maintained at a good level for a long time,and there is no deterioration.The results of this paper are still robust after considering common trends,different forms of pollutants,changing different samples,and selecting different models.

关 键 词：环境政策工具 空气质量 “G20峰会” 双重差分法 

分 类 号：F205[经济管理—国民经济]