基于多元回归分析的PPI等指标对我国CPI的影响研究  

Impact of PPI and Other Indicators on China′s CPI Based on Multiple Regression Analysis

作　　者：董杉杉 Dong Shanshan(Department of Finance,Hebei University of Technology,Tianjin300401,China)

机构地区：[1]河北工业大学财务处,天津300401

出　　处：《河北工业大学学报（社会科学版）》2022年第1期25-30,共6页Journal of Hebei University of Technology：Social Sciences Edition

基　　金：河北省教育厅社科项目(教育财务专项):(CWZX202015);河北省教育厅社科项目:(SY2021022)。

摘　　要：选取社会商品零售价格指数、工业生产者出厂价格指数、工业生产者购进价格指数、固定资产投资价格指数、进出口价格指数、农业生产资料价格指数、广义货币供应量七个经济指标,运用SPSS统计软件,建立多元回归分析模型,并逐步降低各自变量之间的多重共线性,提高回归模型的显著程度,最终建立了以社会商品零售价格指数、农业生产资料价格指数和广义货币供应量三个经济指标为自变量的回归方程,三个自变量都和CPI的波动趋势正向相关,根据该模型结果分析了其在经济市场中的实证意义。创新之处在于分析了农业生产资料价格指数经济变量对居民消费物价指数的影响,并进而提出对农产品采取相应政策措施以应对物价的剧烈波动。This paper established a multiple regression analysis model by SPSS on the selection of seven economic indicators including retail price index(RPI),producer price index(PPI),producer purchase price index(PPPI),fixed asset investment price index,import and export price index,agricultural means of production price index(AMPI)and broad monetary supply.Through gradually reducing the multicollinearity among variables and improving the distinctiveness of regression model,a regression equation was eventually established with three economic indicators of RPI,AMPI and broad money supply as independent variables.These three independent variables are positively correlated with the fluctuation trend of CPI,and their empirical significance in the economic market is analyzed based on the model.This paper has analyzed the impact of the economic variables of AMPI on CPI,and further proposed the corresponding policies for agricultural produces to deal with the drastic fluctuations of price.

关 键 词：多元回归分析 消费者物价指数 零售物价指数 广义货币供应量 影响因素 

分 类 号：F713[经济管理—产业经济]