基于PFDHA的X80管道应变失效可靠度计算方法  

Reliability calculation method for X80 pipeline’s strain failure based on PFDHA

作　　者：刘啸奔 房茂立 郑倩 王亮[3] 杨悦 顾晓婷[4] LIU Xiaoben;FANG Maoli;ZHENG Qian;WANG Liang;YANG Yue;GU Xiaoting(National Engineering Laboratory for Pipeline Safety/MOE Key Laboratory of Petroleum Engineering/Beijing Key Laboratory of Urban Oil and Gas Distribution Technology,China University of Petroleum-Beijing,102249 Beijing,China;China University of Petroleum-Beijing Karamay Campus,834000 Karamay,China;Sinopec Petroleum Engineering Corporation,257000 Dongying,China;School of Petroleum Engineering,Yangtze University,430100 Wuhan,China)

机构地区：[1]中国石油大学(北京)油气管道输送安全国家工程实验室/石油工程教育部重点实验室/城市油气输配技术北京市重点实验室,北京102249 [2]中国石油大学(北京)克拉玛依校区,克拉玛依834000 [3]中国石化石油工程设计有限公司,东营257000 [4]长江大学石油工程学院,武汉430100

出　　处：《应用力学学报》2022年第1期148-154,共7页Chinese Journal of Applied Mechanics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(No.52004314);新疆自治区天山青年计划项目(No.2019Q088);中国石油大学(北京)青年拔尖人才基金(No.2462018YJRC019);中国石油大学(北京)科研基金项目(No.2462020YXZZ045);中国石油科技创新基金项目(No.2017D-5007-0606)。

摘　　要：地质断层是长输油气管道的主要地质灾害威胁,断层灾害条件下管道会由于过大的应变而失效。现有基于应变设计的确定性分析方法相对保守,无法考虑管道结构、管周土壤和地震断层位移的多重不确定性。为此,提出了一种综合考虑管道几何尺寸、管土相互作用,以及断层位移不确定性的可靠性分析方法。采用管道设计应变数据库,建立管道设计应变与各影响参数间的神经网络预测模型,获得基于应变的断层错位下管道极限状态方程。通过Monte-Carlo模拟,计算得到特定断层位移下考虑管道尺寸参数、管土作用参数、内压等参数不确定性的管道失效概率。基于断层位移概率危险性分析流程(PFDHA),对断层位移的不确定性进行考量,得到各断层位移在不同服役期下的发生概率。结合既得的管道条件失效概率,基于全概率计算公式可得管道在该服役期内的失效概率。以管道穿越博罗科努-阿其克库都克断裂的新粤浙X80管道为例开展分析,获取了该管道在服役10年、20年、30年的失效概率。结果表明:新粤浙X80管道服役20年内满足CSA Z662规定的目标可靠性要求;服役年限大于20年后,该穿越段管道失效概率将超越最大允许的失效概率,需采取必要的抗震措施。Tectonic fault is one of the main geohazards that occur to long-distance oil and gas pipelines.Large longitudinal strain induced by active fault will lead to pipeline rupture failure.The existing deterministic analysis methods based on strain design are relatively conservative and cannot take into account the multiple uncertainties of pipeline structure,circumferential soil or seismic fault displacement.Therefore,this paper proposes a reliability analysis method which takes into account the pipeline geometry,tube-soil interaction,and the uncertainty of fault displacement.Using the pipeline design strain database,the neural network prediction model between the pipeline design strain and the influencing parameters was established,and then the limit state equation based on the strain was obtained.Through Monte-Carlo simulation,the conditional failure probability of pipelines with uncertain parameters such as pipe size parameter,pipe soil action parameter and internal pressure under specific fault displacement was calculated.Based on the probabilistic risk analysis process of fault displacement(PFDHA),the uncertainty of fault displacement was considered,and the occurrence probability of each fault displacement during different service periods was obtained.Combined with the obtained failure probability of pipeline conditions,the total failure probability of pipeline in this service period can be obtained based on the calculation formula of total probability.This paper takes the intersection site between XinYueZhe X80 pipeline and Bo-AF located in Xinjiang an example to carry out the analysis,and the failure probability of the pipeline section in ten,twenty,thirty years of service is obtained.The results show that the pipeline will meet the target reliability requirements laid down by CSA Z662 over next twenty years.However,if the service life is more than twenty years,the failure probability of the pipeline will exceed the maximum allowable failure probability,and the pipeline section at the crossing shall be equipped

关 键 词：断层 管道 可靠性计算 断层位移概率危险性分析 服役年限 

分 类 号：TE973.1[石油与天然气工程—石油机械设备]