基于储能与可再生能源配置比差异的多能系统可靠性评估  

Reliability Assessment of Multi-energy System Based on the Difference of Energy Storage and Renewable Energy Allocation Ratio

作　　者：王岳振 胡松涛[1] 刘国丹[1] 郑进福 于慧俐[1] 秦承敏 WANG Yuezhen;HU Songtao;LIU Guodan;ZHENG Jinfu;YU Huili;QIN Chengmin(School of Environmental&Municipal Engineering,Qingdao University of Technology,Qingdao 266033,Shandong,China)

机构地区：[1]青岛理工大学环境与市政工程学院,山东青岛266033

出　　处：《建筑科学》2022年第2期57-64,88,共9页Building Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目“海水-土壤双源热泵系统热过程协同机理及设计与节能运行方法重构研究”(51761145014);青岛市科技惠民项目“海洋低品位热能资源化利用技术研究及应利用”(18-6-1-105-nsh)。

摘　　要：为定量分析储能与可再生能源配置容量占比(即配置比)对多能供冷(热)系统可靠性的影响,建立了一种基于时序马尔可夫过程的多能源系统可靠性评估方法。首先,结合能源集线器模型构建能量平衡方程,其次以寿命周期能耗成本最低作为目标函数,结合地区负荷率分布建立考虑储能灵活调度的混合整数型优化模型,同时基于时序马尔可夫过程构建能源转化设备随机状态模型,建立多能供冷(热)系统的可靠性指标的评价体系;最后,通过评估某邮轮母港园区多种能源方案的经济性与可靠性,验证了所提方法的有效性与实用性,同时也对方案的决策提出建议与指导。In order to quantitatively analyze the impact of energy storage and renewable energy allocation capacity(i.e. allocation ratio) on the reliability of multi-energy cooling(heating) systems, a multi-energy system reliability evaluation method based on Markov process is established. First, the energy hub model is adopted to construct an energy balance equation. Secondly, the lowest lifetime operating cost is used as the objective function to establish a mixed-integer optimization model considering the flexible energy storage scheduling. At the same time, a random state model of energy conversion equipment based on the sequential Markov process is established and an evaluation system for the reliability index of the multi-energy cooling(heating) system is built. Finally, by evaluating the economics and reliability of various energy solutions in a cruise home port park, the effectiveness and practicability of the proposed method are verified. At the same time, suggestions and guidance are also provided for the decision-making of the plan.

关 键 词：可靠性 多能源系统 马尔可夫过程 运行优化 能源转化设备 

分 类 号：TU831[建筑科学—供热、供燃气、通风及空调工程]