天然气与新能源融合发展路径研究  

Research on the path of integrated development of natural gas and new energy

作　　者：张建平[1] 王富平[1] 梅琦 蒋龙[1] 马英恺 ZHANG Jianping;WANG Fuping;MEI Qi;JIANG Long;MA Yingkai(Research Institute of Natural Gas Economy,PetroChina Southwest Oil&Gasfield Company)

机构地区：[1]中国石油西南油气田公司天然气经济研究所

出　　处：《国际石油经济》2022年第1期51-58,100,共9页International Petroleum Economics

摘　　要：天然气作为可能最晚达峰的化石能源,较长的资产投资回报周期意味着当前的重大投资必须考虑碳中和情景,这样才能避免锁定效应。能源转型主要体现在能源供应侧分散化、能源需求侧电力化、能源供需交互数字化和能源技术低碳化。未来天然气消费可能出现新消费场景,即交通领域呈现"人·车·生活"和"货·车·生产"双生态圈融合态势,工业领域呈现原料、燃料、新材料"三料一体化"方向发展态势,用能领域呈现从多单位独立计量到碳单位综合计量态势。需用逆向思维探索天然气与新能源融合的路径,提出在产品链、价值链和生态链三个层次的融合发展路径。建议以有为的长期政策提升天然气跨界储备能力、以开放式创新促进能源融合相关技术研发、以工业互联网为突破口强化商业模式研究、以生态链建设为手段提升全生态竞争能力。Natural gas may be the last to peak and has the long asset return cycle,which means major investments now must take into account carbon neutrality to avoid lock-in effects.Future natural gas consumption may appear new scenarios,namely the double ecosystem integration of transportation of “people,vehicles,life” and “goods,vehicles,production”,the materials integration of raw materials,fuel and new materials in industrial circle,and the trend from multi-unit independent measurement to carbon unit comprehensive measurement in energy use.It is necessary to explore the integration path of natural gas and new energy with reversing thinking and put forward the integration development path at such three levels as product chain,value chain,and ecological chain.It is suggested to enhance the cross-border reserve capacity of natural gas via successful long-term policies,facilitate research and development of relevant technologies for energy integration with open innovation,improve business model research with breakthrough point of industrial internet,and increase competitiveness of the whole ecosystem through ecological chain construction.

关 键 词：能源融合 能源转型 碳中和 天然气 新能源 

分 类 号：F426.2[经济管理—产业经济] X322[环境科学与工程—环境工程]