扭曲因子、进口中间品价格与全要素生产率——基于非竞争型投入产出网络结构一般均衡模型事后核算方法  

Distortion Factors,Prices of Imported Intermediate Inputs,and Total Factor Productivity:Ex Post Accounting Method Based on General Equilibrium Modelling of the Noncompetitive Input-Output Network Structure

作　　者：倪红福 NI Hongfu(Institute of Economics/University of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,Chinese Academy of Social Sciences)

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院大学经济学院/中国社会科学院经济研究所,北京100836

出　　处：《金融研究》2022年第2期21-39,共19页Journal of Financial Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目“突发性公共卫生事件的全球价值链重构效应:基于生产网络结构一般均衡模型方法”(72073142)、国家自然科学基金面上项目“中国产业迈向价值链中高端:理论内涵、测度和路径分析”(71873142)和国家自然科学基金专项项目(中国经济发展规律的基础理论与实证)“中国贸易投资开放发展:基本规律、宏观效应与‘双循环’新发展格局构建”(72141309)的资助。

摘　　要：基于BF(2020)模型框架,本文构建了嵌入间接税、成本加成和进口中间投入品的非竞争型投入产出网络结构一般均衡模型,并提出了一种扭曲—调整的索洛余值的事后核算和结构分解新方法,进一步利用中国投入产出表数据、WIOD数据库等编制了与模型匹配的社会核算矩阵,实证测算分析了1997—2017年中国全要素生产率及其结构变化。研究表明:(1)资本和全要素生产率是中国经济增长的主要源泉,且两者存在明显此消彼长的“跷跷板”特征,劳动的贡献相对较小且贡献率呈下降趋势。(2)纯技术效率变化一直是全要素生产率变化主要贡献部分,但总体上呈下降趋势。2007年是其分水岭,受技术模仿后发优势逐步式微的影响,技术进步速度下滑,但2012年后受创新驱动发展战略的影响,纯技术效率逐步提升。(3)扭曲因子配置效率变化对全要素生产率变化的贡献由正转负,进口中间品贸易条件变化对全要素生产率变化的贡献率由负转正。在建立社会主义市场经济体制和加入WTO大背景下,资源配置效率变化促进了全要素生产率。但2007—2012年,受国际金融危机影响,扭曲因子配置效率出现短期恶化并拉低了全要素生产率。China’s economic development since the reform and opening-up in 1978 is remarkable.However,the growth of China’s economic development shows slowing trends over the past decade because of the triple pressure of shrinking demand,supply shocks,and weakening expectations.Following the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic,changes have accelerated and China’s external environment is now more complex,severe,and uncertain.How to interpret China’s economic growth over the past 40 years and the changes in total factor productivity(TFP)and its driving factors?Answering these questions is of great practical significance.Many studies explore TFP.For example,macro-level studies are generally based on the classical Solow residual method to estimate TFP.In these studies,any unobservable factors affecting economic growth can be attributed to TFP;therefore,the classical Solow residual is like a“black box.”It is impossible to accurately understand the determinants of TFP theoretically;thus,there are misunderstandings in the understanding of TFP,which also leads to differences in understanding changes in TFP.Studies of the decomposition of TFP in China lack a unified theoretical model and especially a general equilibrium model of the input-output network structure.Based on the basic framework of Baqaee and Farhi(2020),this paper constructs a general equilibrium model of a noncompetitive input-output network structure with imported intermediate inputs and distortion factors suitable for China’s characteristics.The paper then proposes a new method for calculating and decomposing total productivity,which empirically calculates and decomposes changes in TFP.This paper makes two marginal contributions to the literature.First,the theoretical model of the production network structure is expanded.The general Baqaee and Farhi(2020)model is based on the general equilibrium framework of a production network structure with markup.In addition to the markup caused by monopoly power,the structure of China’s tax system with indirect tax

关 键 词：生产网络结构 投入产出 全要素生产率 资源配置效率 

分 类 号：F222.33[经济管理—国民经济] F124