估算中国的IFDI和OFDI——来自“避税天堂”与返程投资的证据  

Chinese Mainland’s Inward and Outward Foreign Direct Investment Stock:Evidence from Tax Havens and Round-Tripping Investment

作　　者：肖立晟[1] 徐子桐 范小云 XIAO Lisheng;XU Zitong;FAN Xiaoyun(Institute of World Economics and Politics,Chinese Academy of Social Sciences;School of Finance,Nankai University)

机构地区：[1]中国社科院世界经济与政治研究所,北京100732 [2]南开大学金融学院,天津300350

出　　处：《金融研究》2022年第2期40-60,共21页Journal of Financial Research

基　　金：国家社科基金重大项目(16ZDA031、17ZDA074);国家社科基金重点项目(14AZD032);国家自然科学基金青年科学基金项目(71703173);金融四十人论坛(CF40)重点课题的资助。

摘　　要：本文梳理了现有文献对离岸金融中心导致的直接投资头寸统计偏差进行修正的方法,详细比较了直接投资头寸数据集的优劣差异,并以CDIS宏观数据集为基础,引入Orbis微观企业数据库作为重要补充,对直接投资的动机按避税目的和境外上市目的进行区分,以此估算我国的IFDI和OFDI存量。结果表明:(1)估算后,来自离岸金融中心的IFDI调减1.1万亿美元,其中超过80%是出于避税目的进行的返程投资;(2)考虑VIE架构境外上市企业的影响后,返程投资占比增长至近37%,规模约1万亿美元,其中VIE架构境外上市企业贡献了16%;(3)我国对外投资存在经过“避税天堂”进行中转的现象,其中最终投向英属维尔京群岛的OFDI存量约占1/4,是我国实际OFDI的最主要投向地。Foreign direct investment(FDI)in Chinese mainland has grown rapidly in recent years.According to data released by the State Administration of Foreign Exchange,Chinese mainland’s inward(IFDI)and outward FDI(OFDI)stocks comprised more than 50%and 25%of Chinese mainland’s overseas liabilities and assets,respectively.However,the current statistics only cover the bilateral direct investment announced by statistical agencies and do not include direct investments transshipped through offshore financial centers or returned as round-tripping investments.Direct investments related to the offshore market will distort the current account statistics in international investment positions.Accurate accounting and measurement of Chinese mainland’s overseas IFDI and OFDI will help to study issues such as capital outflows and wealth inequality,in addition to investigating Chinese mainland’s current account imbalances and intertemporal optimization.We infer two characteristics of rapid investment growth.First,more than 70%of Chinese mainland’s IFDI and OFDI positions come from or flow to tax havens,such as Hong Kong,the Cayman Islands,and the British Virgin Islands.Second,the ultimate sources of FDI funds from some offshore financial centers,in addition to developed economies such as Europe,the United States,Japan,and South Korea,are round-tripping investments from Chinese mainland.That is,funds flow out of Chinese mainland as OFDI and finally return to Chinese mainland as IFDI instead of actual international investments.These two structural characteristics lead to two issues.On the one hand,the current statistical principles are based on a“residence”perspective rather than the“domicile”perspective Avdjiev et al.(2018)denote“Domicile”as a permanent residence in consolidate group-level,usually the place of ultimate origin and permanent place where a corporate group’s headquarters is located.of actual capital flows and show differences in their direct investment statistics.While the former facilitates the measu

关 键 词：IFDI存量 OFDI存量 避税天堂 返程投资 

分 类 号：F832.6[经济管理—金融学] F125