人口红利还是人力资本红利:生育政策经济影响的理论分析  

Demographic Dividends or Human Capital Dividends:A Theoretical Analysis on the Economic Impacts of Fertility Policies

作　　者：贾俊雪[1,2] 龙学文 孙伟 JIA Junxue;LONG Xuewen;SUN Wei(China Financial Policy Research Center,Renmin University of China;School of Finance,Renmin University of China)

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学中国财政金融政策研究中心,100872 [2]中国人民大学财政金融学院,100872

出　　处：《经济研究》2021年第12期130-148,共19页Economic Research Journal

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目(17ZDA048);中国人民大学研究基金(中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助,17XNB004)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：为更好地认识与理解生育政策调整可能带来的人口红利和人力资本红利及其经济影响,本文基于中国生育政策和经济社会发展实践,构建一个异质性居民代际交叠模型,深入考察生育政策(包括最大生育数量限定和超生罚款政策)对经济增长、收入分配和社会养老保障负担的影响及其机理。研究表明,生育政策对不同人力资本居民的生育和子女教育投资决策具有明显的异质性效应,且生育数量限定和超生罚款政策的影响不同。生育数量限定政策放松对经济增长具有"倒U"型影响,对居民收入基尼系数则具有"U"型效应,有利于减轻社会养老保障负担。超生罚款政策放松亦能减轻社会养老保障负担,但会抑制经济增长、加大收入差距。加大公共教育投入总体有助于生育政策放松取得较好效果;降低代际传导性有利于生育数量限定政策放松积极作用的发挥,超生罚款政策放松则具有相反影响。上述发现对于持续优化完善我国生育政策及配套支持措施具有良好启示。The impacts of fertility policies on demographic dividends,human capital dividends and other economic aspects,including economic growth,income gap and financial burden from social security for the elderly,have attracted attention from both academics and policymakers for decades.It becomes a particularly crucial question for China as the government is at a critical stage of adjusting its policies to balance China’s demographic structure and economic growth.In 1979,China implemented its very strict population control policy—“the one-child policy”.Over the past forty years,the policy achieved its desired target.It successfully controlled the previously soaring population growth,significantly improved the quality of the population and provided necessary demographic dividends and human capital dividends for China’s remarkable economic development.Overtime,the policy encountered new demographic challenges,for instance,an ageing population with corresponding financial burden from social security for the elderly.The central government attached great importance to the issues and has started gradually relaxing its fertility restrictions since the 18 th National Congress of the Communist Party of China.In 2016,all families were permitted to have two children.In 2021,the limit was further raised to three children per family.The government also promised to conduct more strategic research on mid-and long-term fertility policies to bring a long-term balanced population growth.Therefore,how to continuously optimize fertility policies and supporting measures to shape a healthy demographic structure and maintain sustainable growth deserves continuous in-depth research by Chinese government and academia in the new era.In this paper,based on China’s existed fertility policies and development experiences after the economic reform,we construct a heterogenous-agent overlapping-generations(OLG)model incorporating a two-parameter(a policy permitted fertility limit and the corresponding financial penalties for each additional

关 键 词：生育政策 经济增长 收入分配 社会养老保障负担 异质性居民代际交叠模型 

分 类 号：C924.21[社会学—人口学] F124