美国货币政策与G20通货膨胀率的相关分析  

Correlation Analysis of US Monetary Policy and G20 Inflation Rate

作　　者：李浩然 LI Hao-ran(Guizhou Normal University,550001,Guiyang,Guizhou,China)

机构地区：[1]贵州师范大学,贵州贵阳550001

出　　处：《特区经济》2022年第2期56-59,共4页Special Zone Economy

摘　　要：美国作为世界第一大经济体,货币政策根据美国国内经济形势进行调整,对世界各国的影响较大,也是全球金融市场关注的焦点。本文将探究美国货币政策是否会在当时或未来一段时间影响世界其他国家的通货膨胀率。本文通过收集各国央行及金融机构公布的数据,采用平稳化检验和一阶差分处理技术进行数据预处理,通过皮尔森相关系数和时间序列回归的方法得出变量间的相关性,比较讨论在当时和滞后几个月甚至几年时间内美国货币政策对G20通货膨胀率的影响。结果表明,美国货币政策对G20成员通货膨胀率有一定影响,美联储资产负债表规模调整会即时显现对后者的影响,而美国联邦基金利率调整是在半年内对后者产生较为持续的影响。As the largest economy in the world, the monetary policy of the United States is adjusted according to the domestic economic situation, which has a great impact on all countries in the world and is also the focus of global financial markets. This paper will study whether the US monetary policy affect the inflation rate of other countries at that time or in the future. Based on data collected from central banks and financial institutions, data is preprocessed using stationarity test and first-order differential method. Variables are correlated using Pearson correlation coefficient and time series regression. The effects of the US monetary policy on G20 inflation rates are compared over the current and lagging months or even years. The results indicate that the US monetary policy has a certain impact on the inflation rate of G20 members. The balance sheet size of the FED will immediately show the impact on the latter, while the US federal fund interest rate will have a more sustained impact on the latter in half a year.

关 键 词：美国货币政策 G20成员通货膨胀率 皮尔森相关系数 平稳时间序列回归 

分 类 号：F426.86[经济管理—产业经济]