美国人工智能军事化的发展态势、风险与应对路径  

The Militarization of AI by the US:Trends,Risks and Countermeasures

作　　者：孙海泳[1] Sun Haiyong

机构地区：[1]上海国际问题研究院美洲研究中心/比较政治与公共政策研究所,上海200233

出　　处：《国际论坛》2022年第2期33-49,156,共18页International Forum

基　　金：国家社科基金重大项目资助(批准号:21VG003)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：基于传统的技术制胜的军事战略思路以及塑造相对于其他大国的军事优势的需要,美国政府与军方已加快人工智能技术在军事领域的应用。其侧重点主要体现在以下三方面:第一,制定与实施各类人工智能发展规划与方案,为推动军事智能化创造条件;第二,加快推动人工智能军事化应用项目的发展,特别是以人工智能技术提升作战指挥系统的综合效能,推进自主攻击平台的研发与应用;第三,强化与盟国在人工智能军事化领域的合作。上述态势造成三方面风险:第一,加剧基于新兴技术的军备竞赛风险;第二,增加大国间发生冲突甚至战争的可能性,这是因为基于人工智能技术的自主攻击系统的可靠性不足,而且人工智能军事化系统的应用会侵蚀大国间的战略“默契”并降低网络攻击的门槛;第三,可能重构大国间威慑体系并侵蚀国际安全的稳定基础。对于中国而言,面对美国推进人工智能军事化所产生的诸多风险因素,需从强化技术进步等方面应对智能化冲突或战争风险,参与和引导人工智能技术全球治理进程以提升中国的话语权,拓展中美在应对上述风险方面的合作空间。Given its long-held military strategic thinking that emphasizes technological prowess and its desire to maintain military advantages over other great powers,the US government and the US military have accelerated the application of artificial intelligence(AI)technology in the military field.The US has focused on three measures.First,it has created the conditions for the militarization of AI technology through the formulation and implementation of R&D plans and programs.Second,it has promoted application projects for AI militarization,especially to improve the effectiveness of battle command systems,and promoted the R&D and application of autonomous weapon systems.Third,it has strengthened cooperation with allies in the militarization of AI.These measures will generate three risks.First,they will increase the risk of an arms race in emerging technologies.Second,they will increase the chance of conflicts or even wars between major powers,due to poor reliability of AI weapon systems,the erosion of the tacit strategic understanding between major powers and the increased possibility of cyberattacks as a result of AI militarization.Third,they may reshape the system of deterrence between great powers and undermine the foundation of international security.In the face of the above risks,China needs to promote technological progress,take part and play a leading role in the global governance of AI technology,and expand the possibility for China-US cooperation in dealing with the above risks.

关 键 词：美国军事战略 人工智能军事化 美国人工智能战略 智能化战争 

分 类 号：D51[政治法律—政治学]