“冷战”视角下的中美“新冷战”  

Sino-US“New Cold War”from the Perspective of the“Cold War”

作　　者：黄忠 Huang Zhong

机构地区：[1]广东外语外贸大学加拿大研究中心,广州510420

出　　处：《国际论坛》2022年第2期76-99,157,158,共26页International Forum

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目“近年来美国全球软遏制战略变化与中国对策研究”(项目编号:20BGJ058)资助成果。

摘　　要：国内外有关中美“新冷战”的争论忽略了对“冷战”本身的回顾,观点难以经受住历史检验。通过比较可以看出,当前的中美关系特征不符合冷战的基本特征,内容不满足冷战的含义,发展更不具备冷战产生所必需的条件。二战结束之初,国际体系权力真空与混乱为两极结构下的冲突与对抗提供了足够空间,地缘经济、政治和安全利益冲突不可调和令美苏走向对抗,意识形态对立、文化心理认知差异强化了苏美决策层的恶性互动,这三者共同导致了美苏冷战的产生。当前,两极结构远未形成,国际权力真空极小,中美经济、政治与安全层面利益冲突并非不可调和,意识形态与文化差异上的认识问题也不是无解,决定了中美之间的新冷战将很难发生。确切而言,中美正处于“类冷战”的战略竞合期,它受到了美国冷战思维的影响,负面色彩比较突出。拜登政府继续对华施压,第三方问题引爆两国危机可能性的提升,尤其是美国政治的极化与分裂,决定了未来中美关系有可能更差。对此,中国应继续以发展自己为首务,对美坚持以斗争求合作的方针,争取早日实现国家崛起。Since the debates in China about a “new Cold War” between China and the United States have not taken a look at the Cold War itself, these viewpoints cannot possibly stand the test of history. Through comparison, it can be seen that current SinoUS relations lack the characteristics that are found in the Cold War, neither satisfy the definition of the Cold War, nor meet the prerequisites for the emergence of a new cold war. In the wake of World War Ⅱ, the power vacuum and chaos in the international system provided sufficient space for conflicts and confrontations in a bipolar world. The irreconcilable conflicts of interests in the geo-economic, political, and security spheres led the US and the Soviet Union to confrontation. The ideological opposition and cultural and psychological differences strengthened the vicious cycle of interaction between Soviet and US decision-makers. These three factors together led to the emergence of the US-Soviet Cold War. At present, a new cold war between China and the US is highly unlikely since the bipolar structure is far from being formed, the international power vacuum is extremely small, the conflicts of interests between the two countries in the economic, political, and security realms are not irreconcilable, and the ideological and cultural differences are not unresolvable. To be precise, China and the US are in a period of “quasi-Cold War” characterized by both strategic cooperation and competition. It is affected by the US Cold War mindset, and exhibits relatively prominent negative features. As the Biden administration continues to exert pressure on China, third-party issues may increase the possibility of crisis between the two countries. The polarization and division of US politics means that China-US relations may become worse in the future. China should continue to prioritize its own development, stick to the policy of seeking cooperation through struggle with the US, and strive for an early realization of its rise.

关 键 词：中美关系 “新冷战” “冷战” 类冷战 

分 类 号：D81[政治法律—国际关系]