我国玉米价格波动及价格传导机制研究  

Study on Corn Price Fluctuation and Price Transmission Mechanism in China

作　　者：吴家治 郑宇[1] WU Jia-zhi;ZHENG Yu(College of Economics and Management,Nanjing Forestry University,Nanjing 210037,China)

机构地区：[1]南京林业大学经济管理学院,南京210037

出　　处：《中国林业经济》2022年第2期12-16,共5页China Forestry Economics

基　　金：南京林业大学创新创业训练项目“乡村振兴视角下契约农业对农民收入的影响研究:基于江苏省溧阳市茶农的实地调查”(201910298057Z)。

摘　　要：玉米价格的波动及其传导机制无论对玉米种植者的利益还是消费者的效用来说都有较大的影响。基于省份玉米价格的视角,选择吉林、山东、广东省份对各省玉米价格的波动特征以及价格传导机制进行了研究。研究表明:玉米价格具有明显的周期性和季节性波动特征;单一的主产或主销省对价格波动的贡献率远不如同时是主产和主销省份;主销省份对玉米价格波动的贡献率不如主产省份且主要省份玉米价格波动对本省相比其他省份具有更显著的影响作用。Maize price fluctuations and their transmission mechanisms have a large impact on both the interests of maize growers and the utility of consumers. Based on the perspective of provincial maize prices,this paper examined the volatility characteristics and price transmission mechanisms of maize prices in Jilin,Shandong and Guangdong provinces. The results showed that: maize prices were characterized by significant cyclical and seasonal fluctuations;the contribution of a single main producing or selling province to price fluctuations was much less than that of both main producing and selling provinces;the contribution of selling provinces to maize price fluctuations was less than that of main producing provinces and maize price fluctuations in the main provinces havd a more significant effect on the province than in other provinces.

关 键 词：玉米价格 主要省份 波动特征 价格传导机制 VAR模型 

分 类 号：F323.7[经济管理—产业经济]