资产负债表视角下住房贷款对城镇居民消费的影响  

A Balance Sheet Perspective of the Influence of Housing Loanon Households’ Consumption Expenditure

作　　者：王沈南[1] 颜迪 朱鹤 WANG Shen-nan;YAN Di;ZHU He(School of International Economics and Management,Beijing Technology and Business University,Beijing 100048,China;Business School,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875,China;Research Department,China Finance 40 Forum,Beijing 100044,China)

机构地区：[1]北京工商大学国际经管学院,北京100048 [2]北京师范大学经济与工商管理学院,北京100875 [3]中国金融四十人论坛研究部,北京100044

出　　处：《南通大学学报（社会科学版）》2022年第2期127-140,共14页Journal of Nantong University:Social Sciences Edition

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目“构建以国内大循环为主体、国内国际双循环相互促进的新发展格局研究”(21ZDA008);国家自然科学基金重点项目“中国金融体系的演化规律和变革管理”(71733004);教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目“去杠杆背景下家庭过度负债的识别、后果及其影响因素研究”(18YJC790181)。

摘　　要：近年来,居民部门住房信贷规模迅速积累,偿债支出的快速上升使居民面临越来越大的“入不敷出”压力。基于资产负债表“存量”和“流量”双重视角,利用CFPS2012—2018年微观调查数据,实证检验了住房抵押贷款对居民消费支出的影响机制,研究发现:“存量”视角下,房价上涨带来的房屋资产增值会显著提升家庭消费支出,这种财富效应在多套房家庭中更大;“流量”视角下,住房贷款对居民消费支出具有负向影响,这种挤出效应仅在一套房家庭中显著;异质性方面,住房贷款带来的挤出效应在中低收入家庭、资产负债表不健康家庭中更为显著,并且主要挤出了居住、生活用品及服务类消费。尽管贷款购房具有“存量”层面的财富效应,但更需警惕债务扩张在“流量”层面带来的刚性支出压力。中央政府可通过定向降息、扩大久期等手段降低偿债能力相对较差家庭的本息支出,稳步改善居民家庭“资金流量表”,这有助于维持激发居民的消费潜力。In recent years,the scale of housing credit in the residential sector has risen rapidly,and the obvious increase of“debt repayment”expenditure has brought great pressure on the level of“flow”of residents.Based on the dual perspective of balance sheet“stock”and“flow”,this paper empirically examines the impact mechanism of housing mortgage loan on household consumption expenditure using CFPS2012-2018 micro-survey data,and finds that:From the perspective of“stock”,the appreciation of housing assets brought by rising housing prices will significantly increase household consumption expenditure,and this“wealth”effect is greater in households with multiple houses.From the perspective of“flow”,housing loan has a negative impact on residents’consumption expenditure,which is significant only in households with one house.In terms of heterogeneity,the crowding out effect of housing loan on household consumption is more significant in low-income households and households with unhealthy balance sheets,and it mainly squeezes out consumption of“residence”and“daily goods and services.”While the loan helps buy a house contributing to the“wealth effect”on the level of“stock”,more should be cautious of debt expansion in the“flow”level pressure of rigid expenditure.The central government can enlarge duration by directional interest rate cuts,means to reduce the interest to improve residents’cash flow statement,which will help stimulate residents consumption potential.

关 键 词：住房抵押贷款 中长期负债 居民消费 资产负债表 资金流量表 

分 类 号：F126.1[经济管理—世界经济] F832.45