博斯腾湖流域气候变化对开都河径流量的影响  

Impact of Climate Change in the Bosten Lake Basin on the Kaidu River Runoff

作　　者：赛米热·托合提 迪丽努尔·阿吉[1,2] Saimire TUOHETI;Dilinuer AJI(College of Geographic Science and Tourism,Xinjiang Normal University,Urümqi 830054;Key Laboratory of Lake Environment and Resources in Arid Area of Xinjiang,Urümqi 830054)

机构地区：[1]新疆师范大学地理科学与旅游学院,乌鲁木齐830054 [2]新疆干旱区湖泊环境与资源重点实验室,乌鲁木齐830054

出　　处：《气候与环境研究》2022年第2期323-332,共10页Climatic and Environmental Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目41661007、41261003。

摘　　要：利用线性回归分析法、突变检验法等分析博斯腾湖流域1980~2018年的年均气温、年降水量、年蒸发量等气候因子变化趋势和突变现象及其对开都河径流量的影响。结果表明:1980~2018年博斯腾湖流域年均气温呈波动中上升趋势,其变化速率为0.15°C(10 a)^(−1),年降水量则以0.765 mm(10 a)^(−1)的速率增加,而年蒸发量出现以−11.6 mm(10 a)^(−1)的速率逐渐下降态势,流域气候出现由干向湿的趋势;开都河径流量对气候因子突变的响应表明,1980~2018年开都河径流量通过0.05的水平上呈显著增加态势;流域气候变化对开都河径流量的影响研究表明,流域年均气温与开都河径流量的相关性最大,相关系数为0.463,年降水量、年蒸发量与径流量之间相关性不大,相关系数分别为0.276、−0.03。对比分析发现,博斯腾湖流域气候变化对开都河径流量的影响从大到小依次为年均气温>年降水量>年蒸发量。A linear regression analysis method,mutation test method,etc.were used to analyze the trend and abrupt changes of climate factors such as the average annual temperature,annual precipitation,and annual evaporation in the Bosten Lake Basin from 1980 to 2018 and their impact on the runoff of the Kaidu River.Results show that from 1980 to 2018,the annual average temperature in the Bosten Lake Basin showed a fluctuating upward trend,the rate of change is 0.15°C(10 a)−1,and the annual precipitation increases at a rate of 0.765 mm(10 a)^(−1).However,the annual evaporation appears to gradually decrease at a rate of−11.6 mm(10 a)^(−1),and the climate of the basin has a trend from dry to wet.The response of the Kaidu River’s runoff to sudden changes in climate factors shows that the Kaidu River’s runoff from 1980 to 2018 has a significant increase at the level of 0.05.Research on the impact of the basin due to climate change on the runoff of the Kaidu River has shown that the annual average temperature of the basin has the greatest correlation with the runoff of the Kaidu River with a correlation coefficient of 0.463.Moreover,there is a small correlation between the annual precipitation,annual evaporation,and runoff with correlation coefficients of 0.276 and−0.03,respectively.A comparative analysis found that the impact of climate change in the Bosten Lake Basin on the runoff of the Kaidu River in descending order is annual average temperature>annual precipitation>annual evaporation.

关 键 词：博斯腾湖流域 径流量 MANN-KENDALL 突变检验 相关性分析 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]