盆地东北部一次持续性大暴雨过程成因分析  

Cause Analysis of a Continuous Heavy Rain Process in Northeastern Basin

作　　者：蹇冬梅 夏利[1] 夏菲 朱瑞莉 JIAN Dongmei;XIA Li;XIA Fei;ZHU Ruili(Dazhou Meteorological Bureau,Dazhou 635000,China)

机构地区：[1]四川省达州市气象局,达州635000

出　　处：《高原山地气象研究》2022年第S01期29-33,共5页Plateau and Mountain Meteorology Research

摘　　要：本文利用常规天气资料、新一代多普勒雷达资料对2020年7月16~17日四川盆地东北部的一次持续性大暴雨过程进行了分析,结果表明:本次持续性暴雨主要受高原低值系统不断东移、西南低涡及弱冷空气的共同影响。持续的高能、高湿、不稳定大气状态为大暴雨的发生提供了有利条件。多普勒雷达垂直风廓线产品(VWP)可判断强降水落区及强降水开始时间,为短临预报提供了较好的参考,可用于修正短期预报。以数值模式预报为基础,综合多种观测资料订正模式预报是提高暴雨预报业务水平的有效途径。Based on the conventional weather data and the new generation Doppler radar data,a continuous rainstorm process in the northeast of Sichuan Basin from July 16 to 17,2020 is analyzed.The results show that the occurrence of this continuous rainstorm is due to the combined influence of the continuous eastward movement of the plateau low value system,the southwest vortex and the weak cold air.Continuous high-energy,high-humidity and unstable atmospheric conditions provide favorable conditions for the heavy rain process.The Doppler radar vertical wind profile product(VWP)can judge the heavy rainfall area and the start time of heavy rainfall,which provides a good reference for short-term and imminent forecast and can be used to correct short-term forecast.Based on numerical model forecast,it is an effective way to improve the operational level of rainstorm forecast by integrating multiple observation data.

关 键 词：大暴雨 西南低涡 模式预报 

分 类 号：P458[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]