房价上涨对我国人口出生率的影响——基于省级面板数据的实证分析  

Impact of House Price Rising on Birth Rate in China——An Empirical Analysis of Provincial Panel Data

作　　者：杨斌[1] 丁笠晋 YANG Bin;DING Lijin(School of Public Administration,Sichuan University,Chengdu Sichuan,610065,China)

机构地区：[1]四川大学公共管理学院,四川成都610065

出　　处：《西南石油大学学报（社会科学版）》2022年第2期35-42,共8页Journal of Southwest Petroleum University(Social Sciences Edition)

摘　　要：人口数量和结构是影响我国可持续发展的关键因素,住房是人民群众安居乐业的刚需。近年来,我国人口出生率持续下降。为了实现经济高质量发展,缓解人口危机是当前亟待解决的重要问题。为了探究房价上涨对于我国人口出生率的影响,利用31个省级行政区2010—2019年的面板数据和加权最小二乘法进行实证分析,结果表明:房价上涨对人口出生率产生显著的负向影响,住房价格平均上涨1%将导致人口出生率下降0.13%0.22%;房价上涨对人口出生率的影响在东部省份以挤出效应为主、在中西部省份是以财富效应为主。当前,通过遏制住房投资投机性需求、给予“刚需”人群购房贷款优惠、适量增加东部省份土地供给等手段,可以助力解决我国当前的人口问题。China’s birth rate has been on the decline in recent years,even after the introduction of a comprehensive two-child policy. In order to achieve high-quality economic development,alleviating the population crisis is an important problem to be solved urgently. To explore the impact of rising housing price on the birth rate,the panel data of 31 provincial administrative regions from 2010 to 2019 are used for empirical analysis with weighted least square method. The results show that rising housing price has a significant negative impact on the birth rate. An average increase of 1% in housing price leads to a drop in the birth rate of 0.13% to 0.22%. According to heterogeneity analysis results,the impact of rising housing price on the birth rate is dominated by crowding out effect in eastern provinces,and wealth effect in central and western provinces. Based on the above research results,we suggest curbing investment and speculative demand,giving preferential loans to people with rigid demand for housing purchases,and appropriately increasing the supply of land in eastern provinces in housing policy.

关 键 词：房价 人口出生率 挤出效应 财富效应 人口老龄化 生育政策 

分 类 号：C924.24[社会学—人口学] F299.23