经济增长对环境污染的非线性效应研究——基于半参数空间模型的再检验  

Study on Non-Linear Effect of Economic Growth on Environmental Pollution:Retest Based on Semi Parametric Spatial Model

作　　者：叶阿忠 郑航 YE A’zhong;ZHENG Hang(School of Economics and Management,Fuzhou University,Fuzhou Fujian 350116,China)

机构地区：[1]福州大学经济与管理学院,福建福州350116

出　　处：《生态经济》2022年第4期177-185,共9页Ecological Economy

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目“半参数全局向量自回归模型的理论研究及其应用”(71571046);国家自然科学基金项目“半参数门限空间滞后模型理论研究及其应用”(72073030)。

摘　　要：通过测算31个省域2009-2019年环境污染的空间自相关Moran’s I指数,结合Moran散点图及LISA集聚图分析环境污染的空间相关性,结果表明我国省域环境污染存在显著的正空间相关性,表现出明显的“集群”特征。在此基础上,进一步采用空间计量模型实证分析经济增长对我国环境污染的影响,结果表明,我国省域经济发展水平与环境污染之间并非完全符合EKC假说,而是存在更为复杂的震荡关系。经济增长对于省域环境质量的影响随着经济发展水平的提高呈现“恶化—改善—恶化—改善”的“M”型曲线关系。同时,我国第二产业比重的上升、人均资本存量的提高和环保投资力度的加大均有利于环境质量的改善。By measuring the spatial autocorrelation Moran’s I index of environmental pollution in 31 provinces from 2009 to 2019,combined with Moran scatter plot and Lisa cluster diagram,this paper analyzes the spatial correlation of environmental pollution in provincial areas.The results show that there is a significant positive spatial correlation of environmental pollution in China’s provinces,showing obvious “cluster” characteristics.On this basis,the spatial econometric model is used to empirically analyze the impact of economic growth on China’s environmental pollution,and the results show that the relationship between China’s provincial economic development level and environmental pollution is not fully consistent with the EKC hypothesis,but rather there is a more complex oscillatory relationship.Moreover,the impact of economic growth on provincial environmental quality shows an “M” curve relationship of “deterioration-improvement-worsening-improvement” as the level of economic development increases.At the same time,the rise in the proportion of China’s secondary industry,capital stock per capita and the environmental protection investment is conducive to the improvement of environmental quality.

关 键 词：经济增长 环境污染 半参数空间模型 

分 类 号：X5[环境科学与工程—环境工程] X820.6