污染密集型产业跨国转移对不同国家污染物排放的影响研究  

Research on the Impact of Transnational Transfer of Pollution-Intensive Industries on Pollutant Emissions in Different Countries

作　　者：毋泽鹏 王奇[1] WU Zepeng;WANG Qi(College of Environmental Science and Engineering,Peking University,Beijing 100871,China)

机构地区：[1]北京大学环境科学与工程学院,北京100871

出　　处：《生态经济》2022年第4期186-192,209,共8页Ecological Economy

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目“大气污染控制成本分析技术研究与示范”(2018YFC0213703)。

摘　　要：为更好地研究产业跨国转移对不同国家、不同污染物排放的影响,将其分为规模效应和结构效应并纳入LMDI分解模型,识别全球39个主要国家CO_(2)、SO_(2)排放密集型产业并进行因素分解分析。结果表明,1995-2009年发达国家向发展中国家转移了18.11%的碳密集型产业,该过程在减少发达国家23.97亿吨CO_(2)排放的同时,增加了发展中国家41.42亿吨排放;前者减排主要得益于碳密集型产业转出的结构变化,占总效应的66.99%,而后者增排主要源于产业转入规模增加,贡献达70.80%。研究进一步比较了产业转移与技术进步的污染排放效应,发现随着国家或地区经济发展水平提升,产业转移的污染排放影响在人均GDP为2.05万美元前后分别呈现增排效应和减排效应。研究还发现,硫密集型产业存在类似现象,差别在于当人均GDP为1.43万美元时就发生转变,这可能与CO_(2)、SO_(2)两者不同的全球性与局地性污染特征有关。In order to study the impact of transnational industrial transfer on the emissions of different types of pollutants in different countries, this study divided the industrial transfer into scale effect and structural effect and incorporated them into the LMDI decomposition model. In this way, we identified CO_(2)and SO_(2)emission-intensive industries in 39 major countries in the world and further conducted factor decomposition analysis. The results show that from 1995 to 2009, developed countries transferred 18.11% of their carbon-intensive industries to developing countries. Developed countries reduced 2.397 billion tons of emissions in this period while developing countries have increased emissions by 4.142 billion tons. The main reason for the former’s emission reduction is the changes in the structural of the transfer of carbon-intensive industries, accounting for 66.99% of the total effect. But the latter’s increase in emissions is mainly due to the rise in the scale of industrial transfer, which contributes up to 70.80% of the total. We further compared the effects of industrial transfer and technological progress on pollution emissions, and found that with the improvement of national or regional economic development, industrial transfer firstly promotes pollution emissions while it turns to inhibiting when per capita GDP reaches US$20 500. The results of sulfurintensive industries also showed similar phenomena in which the turning point is US$14 300. It may be related to the different characteristics of CO_(2)and SO_(2). The former is global while the latter is mainly local.

关 键 词：产业跨国转移 污染密集型产业 CO_(2)排放 SO_(2)排放 LMDI分解模型 影响因素 

分 类 号：X5[环境科学与工程—环境工程] X323