计价货币与中间品贸易对日本汇率传递的影响  

The Impact of Invoice Currency and Intermediate Goods Trade on Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Japan

作　　者：李晓[1,2,3,4] 李博囡 Li Xiao;Li Bonan(School of Economics,Jilin University)

机构地区：[1]吉林大学经济学院 [2]吉林大学 [3]广州商学院 [4]横琴智慧金融研究院/吉林大学横琴金融研究院

出　　处：《国际金融研究》2022年第1期27-38,共12页Studies of International Finance

摘　　要：鉴于全球价值链的区域化发展以及中间品贸易的增多,本文以日本为例,通过建立三国贸易模型研究计价货币和中间品贸易对汇率传递的作用机制。本文利用日本2010—2018年出口贸易数据进行实证分析,研究发现,日元计价比例越高,汇率传递水平越高;中间品进口额增加,汇率传递水平降低,出口量受汇率变动的影响也降低。此外,日本出口量对汇率变动的反应程度略小于对出口价格的反应程度。同时,美元计价比例提高后,日本出口产品的目的国家价格和出口量的变动程度均有所增加。目前,通过区域内国际分工并降低对美元的依赖程度是日本出口商应对汇率风险的有效方法。在全球价值链区域化、本土化重构的趋势下,不仅亚洲区域贸易规则需要进行更高水平的调整,而且区域货币金融合作的必要性和可行性也将大幅提升。Based on the fact that the global value chain has been developing rapidly and led to the increase of in-termediate goods trade,this paper uses Japan as the research object and attempts to study the impact mechanism of invoice currency and intermediate goods trade on exchange rate pass-through by establishing a three-country trade model.At the same time,this paper holds the view that a country’s ability to deal with exchange rate risks is reflected in the country’s dependence on other countries.The choice of invoicing currency reflects currency dependence,and the trade of intermediate and final products reflects economic dependence.An empirical analysis using Japan’s export trade from 2010 to 2018 shows that the higher share the Yen as the invoicing currency,the higher degree of exchange rate pass-through.While the import of intermediate goods increases,both the degree of exchange rate pass-through and the response of export quantity to exchange rates decrease.In addition,the response of export quantities to exchange rates is less than the response of export prices in Japan.Meanwhile,when the share of US dollar invoice increases,the volatility of price denominated by destination currency and export volume will both increase.When Japan trades with countries or regions other than the United States,the destination prices of export products are more stable;when it trades with regions outside Asia,the destination prices of export products fluctuate more.The impact of imported intermediate goods on Japan’s exchange rate pass-through does not show obvious industry heterogeneity.At present,through the international division of labor within the region and reducing the dependence on the dollar price is an effective method for Japanese exporters to deal with exchange rate risks.With the trend of regionalization and localization of the global value chain,not only the rules of Asian regional trade need to be adjusted to a higher level,but also the necessity and feasibility of regional monetary and financial cooperation

关 键 词：计价货币 中间品贸易 汇率传递 日本经济 

分 类 号：F831[经济管理—金融学]