经济不确定性对企业信贷需求的影响研究  

Research on the Effect of Economic Uncertainty on Corporate Credit Demand

作　　者：梁燚焱 朱小能[1,2] Liang Yiyan;Zhu Xiaoneng(School of Finance,Shanghai University of Finance and Economics;Shanghai Institute of International Finance and Economics)

机构地区：[1]上海财经大学金融学院 [2]上海国际金融与经济研究院

出　　处：《国际金融研究》2022年第2期34-43,共10页Studies of International Finance

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目“负利率时代金融系统性风险的识别和防范研究”(20&ZD102);上海市高峰学科创新团队项目(2018110262);上海财经大学创新团队项目(2018110698);广东省哲学社会科学规划项目(GD19CYJ18)资助。

摘　　要：企业信贷需求是经济不确定性影响经济发展的重要渠道。本文采用中国上市公司的贷款申请数据,研究经济不确定性对企业信贷需求的影响,进一步分析正面的不确定性和负面的不确定性对企业信贷需求的影响。研究结果表明,经济不确定性对企业信贷需求总体存在抑制效应,企业信贷需求会随经济不确定性提高而减少。正面的不确定性与负面的不确定性对企业信贷需求的影响存在显著差异,正面的不确定性会使企业迎难而上,通过增长期权机制对企业信贷需求发挥激励作用;负面的不确定性会使企业知难而退,通过实物期权机制对企业信贷需求发挥抑制作用。本文有助于理解企业信贷需求变化的原因,并为应对经济不确定性的影响提供参考。Economic uncertainty is an important reason why some countries fall into long-term and sustained recession after the international financial crisis.Enterprise credit demand is an important channel that economic uncertainty affects the economy.The purpose of this study is to analyze the impact of economic uncertainty on enterprise credit demand.This paper uses the loan application data of listed companies from May 2002 to November 2021 as samples for empirical analysis.This paper not only analyzes the overall impact of economic uncertainty on enterprise credit demand,but also decomposes economic uncertainty into good uncertainty and bad uncertainty,and further analyzes the impact of good uncertainty and bad uncertainty on enterprise credit demand.The empirical results are as followed.Firstly,the economic uncertainty has a restraining effect on the credit demand of enterprises,which means enterprise credit demand will decline as economic uncertainty increases.Secondly,the effect of good uncertainty and bad uncertainty on enterprise credit demand is different.Good uncertainty has incentive effect on enterprise credit demand,while bad uncertainty has inhibition effect on enterprise credit demand.Finally,this paper analyzes the reasons for the difference between good uncertainty and bad uncertainty on enterprise credit demand by comparing the influence mechanism.It is found that the difference is due to their different influence mechanism.The influence mechanism of good uncertainty is mainly the growth option mechanism,while the bad uncertainty’s influence mechanism is the real option mechanism.The main policy implications are as followed.Firstly,monetary authorities can adopt counter-adjustment policies to hedge against corporate credit demand changes due to good uncertainty or bad uncertainty.Secondly,attention should be paid to economic stability because the stability of macroeconomic environment is the key to keeping the corporate credit demand stable.Finally,regulators need to focus on credit changes in industr

关 键 词：经济不确定性 企业信贷需求 实物期权 增长期权 

分 类 号：F124[经济管理—世界经济] F832