Potential Impact of Tonga Volcano Eruption on Global Mean Surface Air Temperature  

作　　者：Hua ZHANG Fei WANG Jian LI Yihong DUAN Congwen ZHU Jingyi HE 

机构地区：[1]State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather,Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences,China Meteorological Administration,Beijing 100081 [2]Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters,Nanjing University of Information Science&Technology,Nanjing 210044

出　　处：《Journal of Meteorological Research》2022年第1期1-5,共5页气象学报（英文版）

基　　金：Supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(2017YFA0603502)。

摘　　要：The undersea volcano,located in the South Pacific island nation of Tonga,violently erupted from 14 to 15 January 2022.The Tonga volcano eruption has aroused extensive discussion in the climate change field.Some climatologists believe that this event will cause little effect on global climate change while others insist that it will trigger“the year without a summer”as the Tambora eruption did in 1815.How will the Tonga volcano eruption affect global climate change?Based on the indices of past volcanic eruptions and the eruption data of El Chichón volcano in 1982,we use a simplified radiation equilibrium model to quantify the stratospheric aerosol radiative forcing and the change in global mean surface air temperature(Ts)caused by the Tonga volcano eruption.The results show that the global average Ts will decrease by about 0.0315-0.1118℃in the next 1-2 years.The Tonga eruption will slightly slow down the global warming in a short period of time,but it will not change the global warming trend in the long term.In addition,we propose a generalized approach for estimating the impact of future volcanic eruption on global mean T_(s).

关 键 词：Tonga volcano eruption simplified radiation equilibrium model radiative forcing global mean surface air temperature global warming 

分 类 号：P461[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] P317