制度与人:苏联解体过程的演进逻辑  

The System and the Man:the Logic of the Soviet Disintegration

作　　者：余伟民[1] Yu Weimin

机构地区：[1]华东师范大学历史学系

出　　处：《俄罗斯研究》2022年第1期65-83,共19页Russian Studies

摘　　要："苏联解体过程"包含三方面内容:戈尔巴乔夫的体制改革、苏联东欧集团"类帝国"统治体系的终结和联盟的解体。从制度分析着眼,导致苏联解体的基本问题是斯大林时期确立的高度集权的政治经济体制与联盟国家体制的结构性矛盾和内在张力。戈尔巴乔夫改革显化了这一矛盾,但未能掌控好改革进程,从而陷入双重体制危机。从行为分析着眼,各派政治力量的组合与博弈决定了苏联走向解体的具体路径。虽然苏联的体制改革和社会转型是顺应历史潮流的发展趋势,但联盟的解体并非唯一的选择。在苏联解体过程中,俄罗斯联邦的"主权独立"及其对苏联国家权力的攫取,发挥了特殊的杠杆作用,"八一九事件"则加速了这一进程。The“disintegration of the Soviet Union”includes three aspects,namely,Gorbachev’s institutional reform,the end of the“quasi-empire”ruling system of the Soviet Union for the Eastern European bloc,and the disintegration of the alliance.According to institutional analysis,the basic problem that led to the disintegration of the Soviet Union is the structural contradiction and internal tension between the alliance state system and the highly centralized political and economic system established during the Stalin era.Gorbachev’s reform manifested this contradiction,but he failed to control the reform process,and thus the Soviet Union fell into a dual system crisis.According to behavior analysis,the combination and game of various political forces determined the specific path to the Soviet Union’s disintegration.Although the institutional reform and social transformation of the Soviet Union are trends that conform to the history,the disintegration of the alliance is not the only option.During the disintegration of the Soviet Union,the“sovereign independence”of the Russian Federation and its seizure of state power in the Soviet Union played a special leverage role,and the“August 19^(th) Incident”accelerated this process.

关 键 词：戈尔巴乔夫改革 苏联政治博弈 “八一九事件” 苏联解体 

分 类 号：D751.2[政治法律—政治学]