经济增长恢复、刺激模式退出、气候行动开启——2021俄罗斯经济述评  

Resuming Economic Growth,Exiting from Stimulus Mode and Taking Climate Action:Review of Russian Economy in 2021

作　　者：曲文轶 Qu Wenyi

机构地区：[1]华东师范大学政治与国际关系学院 [2]教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地华东师范大学俄罗斯研究中心

出　　处：《俄罗斯研究》2022年第1期143-163,共21页Russian Studies

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目“新形势下全球价值链重构对国际经济权力转移的影响及中国应对策略研究”(项目批准号:20&ZD143)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：在新冠肺炎疫情仍然肆虐的2021年,俄罗斯经济已经超越了疫前水平,回归正常发展轨道。相比多数新兴经济体与发展中国家要到2024年后才能恢复至疫前水平,以及西方发达国家仍然维持高负债、负利率的刺激政策,俄罗斯在保持财政稳健并收紧货币政策的条件下恢复了增长,这一成绩的取得实属不易。另一方面,俄罗斯率先退出经济刺激模式也引发了争议。在世界输入性通胀的背景下,央行的加息被认为无助于抑制通胀,僵化的财政规则也无法适应疫情期间逆周期调节的需要,因此有学者主张维持宽松的宏观政策,通过扩大政府债务,甚至是由央行购买的方式进行融资,以加速经济增长。2021年俄罗斯的低碳转型也迈出了实质步伐。俄政府批准了2050年前低碳发展战略,明确了2060年碳中和目标,积极开展气候外交,为本国争取有利的低碳发展条件。在实践层面,选择萨哈林州进行区域脱碳试验。俄政府还利用国有企业推进低碳转型进程,要求它们制定自己的气候目标。作为传统能源企业的典型,俄罗斯石油公司在时代挑战面前锐意进取,积极投资绿色技术,在气候治理方面成为国际领先的行业公司。In 2021 when the COVID-19 pandemic was still raging,Russian economy has surpassed its pre-pandemic level and returned to the normal orbit.Compared with most emerging economies and developing countries,which will not be able to resume their economic development until after 2024,and Western developed countries,which still adhere to high-debt and negative interest rate stimulus policies,Russia is recovering its economic growth while maintaining fiscal stability and tightening monetary policies.It is not easy to achieve this achievement.On the other hand,Russia took the lead in exiting from the economic stimulus mode which has also caused controversy.In the context of imported inflation in the world,the central bank’s raising interest rates is considered unhelpful to curb inflation,and rigid fiscal rules cannot meet the needs of counter-cyclical adjustment during the pandemic either.Therefore,some scholars advocate maintaining loose macro policies and accelerate economic growth through increasing government debts or even financing by central bank purchases.In 2021 Russia has also taken substantial steps in low-carbon transition.The Russian government has approved the low-carbon development strategy before 2050,clarified the goal of carbon neutrality in 2060,and actively engaged in climate diplomacy to strive for favorable low-carbon development conditions.Practically,the Sakhalin region was selected for regional decarbonization experiments.The Russian government has also taken advantage of state-owned enterprises to advance the low-carbon transition process,requiring them to set their own climate goals.As a typical example of traditional energy companies,Rosneft has forged ahead against challenges of the times,actively invested in green technologies,and become an international leading industry company in climate governance.

关 键 词：俄罗斯经济 俄罗斯货币政策 俄罗斯气候外交 俄罗斯低碳转型 

分 类 号：F151.2[经济管理—世界经济]