中国禁止进口废纸对造纸产业的影响--基于全球林产品贸易模型的分析  

The Impact of China's Waste Paper Import Ban on the Paper Industry:Based on the Global Forest Products Model

作　　者：宫梦蝶 夏尔蔓 张怡晨 李锐超 位影 于畅 Gong Mengdie;Xia Erman;Zhang Yichen;Li Ruichao;Wei Ying;Yu Chang(School of Economics and Management,Beijing Forestry University,100083,P.R.China)

机构地区：[1]北京林业大学经济管理学院

出　　处：《北京林业大学学报（社会科学版）》2022年第1期29-36,共8页Journal of Beijing Forestry University ：Social Sciences

基　　金：2021年中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金“限制废纸进口政策对中国造纸行业碳排放的影响”(2021SRZ06)。

摘　　要：以中国禁止进口废纸政策为背景,在全球林产品贸易模型中设置基准情景和禁止进口两种情景,并考虑新冠肺炎疫情对全球经济贸易的影响,模拟分析2021−2030年中国禁止进口废纸的影响。研究结果表明:①禁废令将导致国内废纸供不应求,废纸循环回收力度加大,废纸回收率提高。②造纸纤维原料结构发生改变,木浆和其他纤维浆的比重将上升,废纸浆比重下降。③中国纸和纸板进口量将增加,产量、消费量和出口量将下降。④世界废纸贸易市场受到冲击,废纸贸易量将下降。针对禁止废纸进口对造纸产业的影响提出对策建议。Based on China's ban on the import of waste paper,two scenarios are set up in the Global Forest Products Model:the baseline scenario and the scenario of banning the import of waste paper.Both scenarios integrate the impact of the Covid-19 epidemic on the global economy and trade.This paper simulates and analyzes the impact of China's ban on importing waste paper from 2021 to 2030.The results show that,in the first place,the ban will lead to a shortage of domestic waste paper,increase the recycling of waste paper and improve the recovery rate of waste paper.Second,the fiber raw material structure of the paper will change,which is reflected in the increase of the proportion of wood pulp and other fiber pulp and the decrease of the proportion of waste pulp.Third,China's import of paper and paperboard will increase,and its output,consumption and export will decline.Fourth,the global waste paper trade market will be impacted and the volume of waste paper trade will decline.Based on the results,this paper puts forward some suggestions onbanning the import of waste paper in the paper industry.

关 键 词：废纸 禁止固废进口 造纸产业 全球林产品贸易模型 

分 类 号：F326.2[经济管理—产业经济]