基于水动力模型的城市内涝经济损失分析  

Analysis of Economic Losses for Urban Waterlogging Based on Hydrodynamic Model

作　　者：任星芮男 李智[1] 王昊[1] 唐颖 宋利祥 初祁 REN Xingruinan;LI Zhi;WANG Hao;TANG Ying;SONG Lixiang;CHU Qi(Faculty of Architecture,Civil and Transportation Engineering,Beijing University of Technology,Beijing 100124,China;Urban Construction School,Beijing City University,Beijing 100083,China;Pearl River Water Resources Research Institute,Guangzhou 510611,China)

机构地区：[1]北京工业大学城市建设学部,北京100124 [2]北京城市学院城市建设学部,北京100083 [3]珠江水利科学研究院,广东广州510611

出　　处：《净水技术》2022年第3期134-142,共9页Water Purification Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(51809297)。

摘　　要：随着社会的快速发展、经济水平的提升,我国对于灾害的防治越发重视。防灾减灾不仅要对灾害进行预警预报,还需要对灾害所造成的经济损失做较准确的估计。目前的城市内涝经济损失计算公式基本采用经验公式法,会出现不适应研究区域的现象。文中参考国内外研究成果,确定城市内涝经济损失分类,细化内涝经济损失计算,并对每一分类介绍计算方法并给出计算公式。根据昭通市2017年的一场特大降雨造成的内涝灾害,利用MIKE模型对昭通市中心城区进行一、二维水动力学耦合与内涝模拟。根据模拟结果,确定最大淹没水深、淹没面积、淹没时间。根据分区域淹没水深与经济损失计算公式,对昭通市中心城区进行城市内涝经济损失分析并与实际损失对比。结果表明,模型推算结果比真实统计结果高14%左右,可以基本反映此次内涝灾害所造成的经济损失。With the rapid development of society and the improvement of economy, our country pays more and more attention to the prevention and control of natural disasters. Disaster prevention and mitigation not only need to make early warning and forecast of disasters, but also need to estimate the economic losses caused by disasters accurately. At present, empirical formula is basically used to calculate the economic loss of urban waterlogging, which is not suitable for the study area. Based on the research results at home and abroad, this paper determined the classification of urban waterlogging economic loss and refined the calculation of waterlogging economic loss. Calculation method and formula were introduced for each classification. According to waterlogging disaster caused by a very heavy rainfall in Zhaotong City in 2017, MIKE Model was used to carry out one and two dimensional hydrodynamic coupling and waterlogging simulations in the downtown area of Zhaotong City. According to simulation results, maximum submergence depth, submerged area and submergence time were determined. Finally, according to the calculation formula of submergence depth and economic loss, the economic loss of urban waterlogging in downtown area of Zhaotong City was analyzed and compared with actual loss. Results showed that the calculated results of model were about 14% higher than real statistical results, which could basically reflect economic losses caused by waterlogging disaster.

关 键 词：城市内涝 经济损失分类 水动力模拟 经济损失计算 损失系数 

分 类 号：TU992[建筑科学—市政工程]