应用超额死亡法探讨新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情防控期间居民死亡情况的变化趋势  

Using excess mortality method to explore the trend of death in residents during the COVID-19 pandemic prevention and control period

作　　者：古孝勇[1] 仝海员[2] 徐承平 姜方平[1] 俞浩[3] 王宏宇[1] GU Xiao-yong;TONG Hai-yuan;XU Cheng-ping;JIANG Fang-ping;YU Hao;WANG Hong-yu(Zhenjiang Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Zhenjiang,Jiangsu 212002,China;不详)

机构地区：[1]镇江市疾病预防控制中心,江苏镇江212002 [2]江苏省镇江市扬中市疾病预防控制中心,江苏镇江212299 [3]江苏省疾病预防控制中心

出　　处：《现代预防医学》2022年第6期1122-1127,共6页Modern Preventive Medicine

基　　金：江苏省卫生计生委医学科研课题(H2017018)。

摘　　要：目的分析新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情防控期间镇江市户籍居民主要死亡原因分布变化情况,探讨此期间相关防控措施的实施及生活方式改变对居民健康的影响。方法2020年1月26日—3月27日为镇江市新冠疫情防控一级、二级卫生应急响应期,选取2018—2020年同期镇江市户籍居民死亡数据,应用超额死亡理论中的事例分析法,对新冠疫情防控卫生应急响应期内超额死亡情况进行分析。结果新冠疫情防控卫生应急响应期间,镇江市户籍居民死亡人数显著低于对照期水平(RR=0.91,95%CI:0.87~0.95),超额死亡情况主要体现在男性(RR=0.86,95%CI:0.81~0.92)和65岁及以上年龄组(RR=0.91,95%CI:0.87~0.96)人群。分病种超额死亡情况分析显示,男性心脑血管疾病死亡人数显著低于对照期水平(RR=0.88,95%CI:0.82~0.95),超额死亡情况主要体现在45~64岁(RR=0.72,95%CI:0.53~0.98)和65岁及以上年龄组(RR=0.85,95%CI:0.76~0.96)人群;急性、慢性呼吸系统疾病死亡人数显著低于对照期水平(RR=0.52,95%CI:0.36~0.74)、(RR=0.58,95%CI:0.49~0.68),超额死亡情况主要体现在65岁及以上年龄组(RR=0.53,95%CI:0.36~0.77)、(RR=0.57,95%CI:0.49~0.68);男性45~65岁年龄组伤害的死亡人数显著低于对照期水平(RR=0.56,95%CI:0.35~0.88);女性45~65岁年龄组恶性肿瘤的死亡人数显著高于对照期水平(RR=1.40,95%CI:1.05~1.86)。不同特征人群超额死亡情况对比分析显示,男性的超额死亡情况显著低于女性(RRR=1.13,95%CI:1.04~1.22),与恶性肿瘤超额死亡情况相比,心脑血管疾病(RRR=1.19,95%CI:1.09~1.30)、急性呼吸系统疾病(RRR=2.04,95%CI:1.67~2.40)、慢性呼吸系统疾病(RRR=1.82,95%CI:1.65~2.00)的超额死亡情况显著降低。结论新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情应急响应期间,相关防护措施及政策的实施改变了居民的日常生活行为方式,对居民的健康产生了间接影响。Objective To analyze the changes in the distribution of major causes of death among household residents in Zhenjiang city during the prevention and control of the COVID-19 epidemic,and to explore the impact of the implementation of relevant prevention and control measures and lifestyle changes on residents’health during this period.Methods From January 26 to March 27,2020,the primary and secondary health emergency response periods for the prevention and control of the COVID-19 epidemic in Zhenjiang were selected,and the excess deaths during the same period of 2018-2020 were analyzed by applying the example analysis method in the excess death theory to the excess deaths during the period.Results The number of deaths among household residents in Zhenjiang city during the health emergency response period for the prevention and control of the COVID-19 epidemic was significantly lower than that of the control period(RR=0.91,95%CI:0.87-0.95),with excess deaths mainly in men(RR=0.86,95%CI:0.81-0.92)and in the age group of 65 years and above(RR=0.91,95%CI:0.87-0.96).Analysis of excess deaths by disease type showed that the number of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular disease deaths in men was significantly lower than the control period level(RR=0.88,95%CI:0.82-0.95),with excess deaths mainly in the 45-64 years(RR=0.72,95%CI:0.53-0.98)and 65 years and older age groups(RR=0.85,95%CI:0.76-0.96);the number of deaths from acute and chronic respiratory diseases was significantly lower than the control period levels(RR=0.52,95%CI:0.36-0.74),(RR=0.58,95%CI:0.49-0.68),with excess deaths mainly in the age group 65 years and older(RR=0.53,95%CI:0.36-0.77),(RR=0.57,95%CI:0.49-0.68);the number of deaths from injuries in the male 45-65 years age group was significantly lower than the control period level(RR=0.56,95%CI:0.35-0.88);the number of deaths from malignancies in the female 45-65 years age group was significantly higher than the control period level(RR=1.40,95%CI:1.05-1.86).Comparative analysis of excess deaths in the populat

关 键 词：新冠肺炎疫情 超额死亡 死亡情况变化 

分 类 号：R195.4[医药卫生—卫生统计学]