变化环境下长江流域超标准洪水灾害特点研究  

Study on characteristics of over-standard flood disaster in Changjiang River Basin under changing environment

作　　者：李昌文 黄艳 严凌志 LI Changwen;HUANG Yan;YAN Lingzhi(Changjiang Survey,Planning,Design and Research Co.,Ltd.,Wuhan 430010,China;Changjiang Water Resources Commission of the Ministry of Water Resources,Wuhan 430010,China)

机构地区：[1]长江勘测规划设计研究有限责任公司,湖北武汉430010 [2]水利部长江水利委员会,湖北武汉430010

出　　处：《人民长江》2022年第3期29-43,共15页Yangtze River

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2018YFC1508005);长江勘测规划设计研究有限责任公司2019年度自主创新项目(CX2019Z16)。

摘　　要：流域超标准洪水一直是困扰世界的重要问题,给社会经济发展带来毁灭性影响。如何辨识变化环境下流域超标准洪水灾害的新特点及风险要素,是各国政府及水利工作者迫切需要去研究和解决的重大科学问题。以长江流域为例,从气候变化、流域下垫面改变、防洪体系建设、经济社会发展4个维度,动态审视了环境变化引起的流域超标准洪水风险及灾害的新特点。结果表明:全球气候变化增大了超标准洪水的发生几率,大洪水的周期性变化规律亦表明未来发生超标准洪水的可能性较大;水土保持减轻了流域超标准洪水的灾害威胁;洲滩民垸“洪水漫滩-家园重建-再漫滩”恶性循环的状况未根本改变,行蓄洪水与发展保护的矛盾增加了长江流域超标准洪水的调度运用风险;长江流域防洪体系的完善在增加了防御特大洪水能力的同时,由于蓄滞洪区分洪运用困难、河道泄流能力难以保证、外洪和内涝矛盾无法有效协调等原因,仍然不能完全应对流域超标准洪水;经济社会发展尤其是城市化集聚效应致使超标准洪水风险剧增、防洪风险格局改变,每个地区都变得越来越“淹不起”,人们对美好生活的向往加大了水库超蓄和河道强迫行洪的期望值,加剧了防洪调度决策的协调难度。研究成果对科学防御长江流域超标准洪水具有重要科学价值和战略意义。Watershed over-standard flood has always been an important issue plaguing the world,which can lead to devastating impacts on social and economic development.How to identify the new characteristics and risk factors of watershed over-standard flood disasters under changing environment is a major scientific problem that governments and hydraulic workers in various countries urgently need to study and solve.Taking the Changjiang River Basin as an example,from the four dimensions of climate change,change of watershed underlying surface,construction of flood control system,and economic and social development,we dynamically reviewed the new characteristics of watershed over-standard flood disaster and risk caused by environmental changes.The results show that global climate change has increased the probability of over-standard floods,and the periodic changes of large floods also indicate that there is a higher possibility of over-standard floods in the future.Soil and water conservation measures have reduced the threat of over-standard floods.The status of the‘flood overbank-home reconstruction-re-overbank flooding vicious cycle in the bottomland has not fundamentally changed.The contradiction between flood storage and development protection has increased the risk of operation and utilization of over-standard floods in the Changjiang River Basin.The improvement of the Changjiang River Basin flood control system has increased the defense against major floods.However,due to the difficulties of flood diversion in the flood storage and detention areas,difficulties in ensuring discharge capacity in river channels,and the contradictions that cannot be effectively coordinated between external flooding and internal waterlogging,it is still unable to fully controlled the over-standard floods in the basin.Economic and social development,especially the effect of urbanization and agglomeration,has led to a sharp increase in the risk of over-standard flood and a change in the pattern of flood control risk,so every region has becom

关 键 词：流域超标准洪水 洪水灾害 气候变化 流域下垫面改变 防洪体系建设 经济社会发展 防洪风险格局 

分 类 号：TV122[水利工程—水文学及水资源] P333.2[天文地球—水文科学]