长江中下游梅雨与三峡水库入库洪水遭遇规律分析  

Analysis of encountering law between plum rain in middle and lower reaches of Changjiang River and inflow flood of Three Gorges Reservoir

作　　者：李娜[1] 郭生练[1] 王俊 熊丰 LI Na;GUO Shenglian;WANG Jun;XIONG Feng(State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science,Wuhan University,Wuhan 430072,China)

机构地区：[1]武汉大学水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室,湖北武汉430072

出　　处：《人民长江》2022年第3期44-49,共6页Yangtze River

基　　金：中国长江三峡集团有限公司项目(0799254);国家自然科学基金项目(51579183)。

摘　　要：依据1951~2020年长江中下游梅雨特征,包括入出梅时间、梅雨量和梅雨强度指数等参数,分析了梅雨与三峡水库洪水的遭遇规律。结果表明:三峡水库洪水一般发生在7~8月上旬,当出梅时间偏晚时,与三峡水库主汛期发生重叠,梅雨有可能与长江上游来水发生遭遇,遭遇严重时形成流域性大洪水;8月中下旬,尽管三峡水库入库洪水仍可能较大,但梅雨早已结束,一般不会与中下游洪水发生遭遇,此时没有对城陵矶进行补偿调度的任务。依据成因分析法和数理统计法得到三峡水库汛期分期结果,再结合长江中下游出梅时间,综合考虑将主汛期和后汛期的分期节点调整为8月8日至9月10日的动态区间,充分利用气象水文预报的预见期,在确保防洪安全的前提下,实行水库汛期运行水位动态控制和提前蓄水调度。According to the characteristics of plum rain in the middle and lower reaches of Changjiang River Basin from 1951 to 2020,including indices such as the onset dates,ending dates,rainfall and intensity,we analyzed the encountering law between plum rain and inflow flood of Three Gorges Reservoir(TGR).The results show that the flood of TGR generally occurs in July to early August.When the plum rain ending dates is late,it overlaps with the main flood season of the TGR,and the upstream flood may coincide with plum rain to form large basin floods.In mid-to-late August,although the inflow floods of TGR may still be large,plum rain has already ended and generally does not encounter the flood in the middle and lower reaches.At this time,there is no task of compensation dispatch for Chenglingji Station.Based on the flood division of TGR determined by the causal analysis and statistical analysis,as well as the latest ending dates of plum rain,the demarcation line between the main flood season and late flood season can be dynamically determined in August 8 to September 10.On the premise of ensuring flood control safety,it is feasible to implement dynamic control of the water level during flood season and water storage scheduling in advance based on meteorological and hydrological forecasts.

关 键 词：梅雨特征 洪水遭遇 汛期分期 三峡水库 长江中下游 

分 类 号：TV122.1[水利工程—水文学及水资源]