人民币国际化对中国宏观金融风险的传导机制研究  

A Study on the Transmission Mechanism of RMB Internationalization to China’s Macro Financial Risks

作　　者：沙文兵[1] 钱圆圆 SHA Wen-bin;QIAN Yuan-yuan(School of International Trade&Economics,Anhui University of Finance&Economics,Bengbu 233030,China;School of Economics,East China Normal University,Shanghai 200062,China)

机构地区：[1]安徽财经大学国际经济贸易学院,安徽蚌埠233030 [2]华东师范大学经济学院,上海200062

出　　处：《经济体制改革》2022年第2期150-157,共8页Reform of Economic System

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点项目“基于宏观金融稳定视角的人民币国际化策略研究”(16AJL012)。

摘　　要：基于TVP-VAR模型研究人民币国际化对宏观金融风险的影响机制,结果表明:汇率、利率机制是人民币国际化对国内宏观金融风险传导的重要渠道,特别是2015年之后,利率对人民币国际化影响宏观金融风险的中介作用较强。由于现阶段我国的资本与金融项目管制仍然较为严格,人民币国际化通过资本账户开放机制对宏观金融风险的影响程度有限。为有效减轻人民币国际化对国内宏观金融稳定的不利冲击,需进一步深化利率和汇率市场化改革,形成市场化的利率调控和汇率形成机制;继续实行审慎、渐进的资本账户开放策略,推动国内金融市场深化发展;完善宏观审慎政策框架,推进以宏观金融稳定和风险防控为目标的监管改革。Based on TVP-VAR model,the transmission channels of RMB internationalization to macro financial risks are tested.The results show that exchange rate and interest rate mechanism are important channels for RMB internationalization to affect domestic macro financial risk,especially after 2015,the intermediary effect of interest rate has been stronger.Because the management of capital accounts in China is still strict at present,the influence of RMB internationalization on macro financial risks through the mechanism of capital account opening is limited.In order to effectively mitigate the adverse impact of RMB internationalization on domestic macro-financial stability,it is necessary to further improve the market-oriented reform of interest rate and exchange rate,and form a market-oriented interest rate management and exchange rate formation mechanism,adhere to the prudential and gradual capital account opening strategy,and promote the depth and breadth of domestic financial markets,improve the framework of macro-prudential policies and promote regulatory reform aimed at macro financial stability and risk control.

关 键 词：人民币国际化 宏观金融风险 传导机制 金融监管 

分 类 号：F830.2[经济管理—金融学]