美国经济新政及溢出效应研究——基于时变VAR可视化模型和有向无环图分析  

Research on the Spillover Effect of the New U.S.Economic Policy under the Biden Administration:Based on Time-Varying Vector-Autoregression Visualization Model and Directed Acyclic Graph Analysis

作　　者：谢家泉 陈丰[2] 彭成 Xie Jiaquan;Chen Feng;Peng Cheng(School of Financial Mathematics and Statistics,Guangdong University of Finance,Guangzhou 510051,Guangdong,China;Research Center for Regional Coordinated Development,Zhejiang University,Hangzhou 310000,China)

机构地区：[1]广东金融学院金融数学与统计学院,广东广州510051 [2]浙江大学区域协调发展研究中心,杭州310000

出　　处：《金融经济学研究》2021年第6期98-112,共15页Financial Economics Research

基　　金：广东省哲学社会科学规划青年项目(GD19YYJ04)。

摘　　要：拜登上台后,美国采取强财政货币的政策组合,其对中国的溢出效应受到广泛关注。以美国财政货币政策、中美经济基本面和资产价格核心数据为基础,运用时变VAR可视化模型和有向无环图方法,系统分析美经济新政对中国跨境资金流动、汇率和国内金融市场的溢出效应。同时选取2000-2020年间四个特殊点进行趋势比较,结果表明:从长期来看,中国外汇市场影响因素已经日趋多元化,不再是2000年的单一因素——贸易顺差,其影响机制主要体现在跨境资金流动渠道、资产价格渠道和成本推动渠道三个方面;从边际变化来看,拜登上台后经济复苏,财政政策逐步退坡,美联储退出量宽节奏持续加快,未来需关注其带来的负面溢出效应。After Biden took office,strong fiscal and monetary policy is gradually used in US,and its spillover effect on China’s economy gets more attention.Based on the core data about US fiscal and monetary policy,China US economic fundamentals and asset prices,we systematically analyze the spillover effect of U.S.new economic policies on U.S.economic and financial markets,China’s cross-border capital flows,exchange rate and domestic financial markets with time varying VAR visual model and DAG method.At the same time,we select the relevant data of four periods for time-sharing point comparison from 2008 to 2020.The results show that,the factors affecting China’s foreign exchange market have become increasingly diversified,and it is no longer the single factor in 2000-trade surplus in the long run.Its impact mechanism is mainly reflected in three aspects:cross-border capital flow channels,asset price channels and cost promotion channels.In terms of marginal changes,the economy has recovered rapidly and the fiscal policy has gradually been withdrawn since Biden took office.In the future,we need to pay close attention to the negative spillover effect of the Fed’s withdrawal.

关 键 词：美国经济新政 溢出效应 时变VAR可视化网络模型 有向无环图 

分 类 号：F831.7[经济管理—金融学]