基于碳排放与经济关联的完全碳排放强度重新测度  

Re-measurement of Regional Complete Carbon Emission Intensity:Based on the Correlations of Carbon Emission and Economics

作　　者：李堃 姜明栋 王奇[1] LI Kun;JIANG Mingdong;WANG Qi(College of Environmental Sciences and Engineering,Peking University,Beijing 100871)

机构地区：[1]北京大学环境科学与工程学院,北京100871

出　　处：《北京大学学报（自然科学版）》2022年第2期308-316,共9页Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Pekinensis

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(42171277)和国家重点研发计划项目(2018YFC0213703)资助。

摘　　要：尽管已有研究在测度完全碳排放强度时已经考虑了省际间的碳排放关联,但由于忽视经济关联,可能导致测算结果出现偏差。基于该问题,同时考虑区域间碳排放与经济的双重关联,使用区域间投入产出模型,重新测度2010和2015年中国省际完全碳排放强度,并分析其时空演变特征。结果表明,从时间变化看,“十二五”期间我国碳减排成效显著,各地区完全碳排放强度平均降低26.25%;从空间分布看,2010和2015年,完全碳排放强度最高的地区分别为山西和内蒙古,最低的地区均为北京;但是,从对外带动强度看,内蒙古不仅低于北京,也显著低于全国平均水平。与直接碳排放强度和按照传统方法测算的完全碳排放强度相比,考虑碳排放与经济双重关联的完全碳排放强度测算和使用,不但可以避免隐含碳问题对强度测度的干扰,同时能够实现碳排放控制从属地范围向属地行为约束的转变,有助于实现全国整体的碳排放控制目标。Although the inter-provincial correlation of carbon emission has been taken into account in the measurement of complete carbon emission intensity,due to the neglect of economic correlation,the existing measurement could be biased.Considering both the carbon emissions and economy correlation among regions,based on the multi-region input-output model,the paper re-measures the regional complete carbon emission intensity in China in 2010 and 2015 to analyze its spatio-temporal evolution characteristics.The results show that,on the perspective of time evolution,China’s carbon emission reduction during the 12th Five-Year Plan period has achieved significant results,with the total carbon emission intensity of each region reduced by 26.25%on average.From the perspective of spatial characteristics,in 2010 and 2015,the regions with the highest complete carbon emission intensity are Shanxi and Inner Mongolia,and the region with the lowest is Beijing.But from the perspective of external-drive carbon emission intensity,it is not only lower in Inner Mongolia than that in Beijing,but also significantly lower than the national average level.Compared with the direct carbon emission intensity and the complete carbon emission intensity measured by the traditional method,the complete carbon emission intensity considers both the carbon emission and economic correlation,which not only avoids the interference of the embodied carbon problem on the intensity measurement,but also realizes the transformation from the territorial boundary to the territorial behavior constraint.it is helpful to the realization of the national overall carbon emission control target.

关 键 词：完全碳排放强度 碳排放关联 经济关联 区域间投入产出模型 

分 类 号：X321[环境科学与工程—环境工程]