人口老龄化对未来我国经济服务化的影响——基于中日两国经验的比较研究  

The Influence of Population Ageing on China's Service Oriented Economic Development in the Future:A Comparative Study Based on the Experience Between China and Japan

作　　者：方雯 FANG Wen

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学社会与人口学院

出　　处：《西南交通大学学报（社会科学版）》2022年第2期24-34,共11页Journal of Southwest Jiaotong University(Social Sciences)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重大项目“特征、规律与前景———老龄社会的人口学基础研究”(71490731)。

摘　　要：人口老龄化和经济服务化已经成为我国将要面对的必然趋势,而结合国际经验以及我国的现状探讨人口老龄化对经济服务化的影响效应,有利于提前设计与选择适合的产业发展政策。1991—2018年间中日两国人口变化和产业发展数据说明,人口老龄化对经济服务化存在正向影响效应:当人口老龄化达到一定程度时,老龄化开始对经济服务化产生正向推动力,这种正效应随着老龄化程度的提高而不断增强;但是当人口老龄化程度进一步加深时,这种正作用力逐渐由强转弱,最终变得不显著。Ageing population and service oriented economic development have become an inevitable trend,with the international experiences and the actuality in China,studying the influence of population ageing on service economy is conducive to designing and selecting appropriate industrial policies in advance.Population and industrial data of China and Japan from 1991 to 2018 show that ageing has a positive effect on service economy.When the population ageing reaches a certain degree,ageing begins to produce a positive driving force on economic service.At this time,this positive effect increases with the degree of ageing deepening.However,when further deepen the degree of population ageing,this positive force gradually from strong to weak,and finally becomes insignificant.

关 键 词：人口老龄化 经济服务化 消费需求结构 产业政策 人口年龄结构 产业结构 老龄社会 可持续发展 

分 类 号：F124[经济管理—世界经济] F131.3[社会学—人口学] C924.24