社会网络视角下的全球棉花贸易格局分析  

Analysis of Global Cotton Trade Pattern from the Perspective of Social Network

作　　者：刘婷婷 张蕙杰[2] 康永兴 钱静斐[1] LIU Tingting;ZHANG Huijie;KANG Yongxing;QIAN Jingfei

机构地区：[1]中国农业科学院农业经济与发展研究所,北京100081 [2]中国农业科学院农业信息研究所,北京100081 [3]农业农村部规划设计研究院,北京100125

出　　处：《世界农业》2022年第4期26-36,共11页World Agriculture

基　　金：国家社会科学基金“基于主产区棉农视角的棉花目标价格补贴效果及精细化政策研究”(15CJY050);中国农业科学院科技创新工程(10-IAED-04-2022);现代农业产业技术体系专项(CARS-08)。

摘　　要：本文基于社会网络分析方法测度2001年、2011年及2019年全球和中国的棉花贸易网络特征。研究发现:①2001—2019年,全球棉花贸易规模稳定且区域联系逐渐紧密,棉花贸易集中化趋势显著,未来贸易国之间“组团式”发展将成为主流;②亚洲、欧洲、非洲的地理相邻优势将提高相互贸易密度,贸易网络中影响格局演化的国家数量增多,中国、孟加拉国、土耳其等棉花进口国的贸易对象选择对贸易格局的演变有重要的推动作用;③中国、美国、印度、土耳其、印度尼西亚等国是贸易网络中重要的核心节点,并影响全球棉花贸易的格局以及资源调配,主要进出口国对贸易网络的稳定性起决定性作用;④中国在贸易规则的制定与协调上具备高潜力,进口来源集中度较高,需重视潜在供给风险。建议充分利用国内国外两个市场降低产业贸易风险,切实提高产业国际竞争力,推动产业迈上全球价值链中高端。This paper measures the characteristics of global and Chinese cotton trade networks in 2001,2011 and 2019 based on social network analysis,and finds that:①global cotton trade stabilizes in size while regional linkages grow stronger in 2001-2019,with significant concentration of cotton trade,and the future development of“group”among trading countries will become mainstream in the future;②the geographical proximity of Asia,Europe and Africa will increase the density of mutual trade,the number of countries influen-cing the evolution of the pattern in the trade network has increased,the choice of trading partners of cotton importers such as China,Bangladesh and Turkey has been an important driver for the evolution of the trade pattern;③China,the United States,India,Turkey,Indonesia and other countries are important core nodes in the trade network and influence the pattern of global cotton trade as well as resource allocation,the main import and export countries play a decisive role in the stability of the trade network;④China has high potential in the development and coordination of trade rules,but the source of imports is stable and concentrated,and needs to pay attention to the potential risk of cotton imports.It is recommended that China make full use of both domestic and foreign markets to reduce industrial trade risks,improve the international competitiveness of the industry,and promote the industry to the high-end of the global value chain.

关 键 词：社会网络 棉花贸易 贸易关系 贸易地位 

分 类 号：F313.7[经济管理—产业经济] F742F752.7