2020年江苏主汛期短期暴雨预报检验  

Verification of Short-Range Torrential Rain Forecast During the 2020 Jiangsu Main Flood Season

作　　者：苏翔 刘梅 康志明[1,2] 李昕[1,3] SU Xiang;LIU Mei;KANG Zhiming;LI Xin(Key Laboratory of Transportation Meteorology,CMA,Nanjing 210041;Jiangsu Meteorological Observatory,Nanjing 210041;Nanjing Joint Institute for Atmospheric Sciences,Nanjing 210041)

机构地区：[1]中国气象局交通气象重点开放实验室,南京210041 [2]江苏省气象台,南京210041 [3]南京气象科技创新研究院,南京210041

出　　处：《气象》2022年第3期357-371,共15页Meteorological Monthly

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41805078);中国气象局预报员专项(CMAYBY2020-046)共同资助。

摘　　要：基于江苏预报业务常用的三个全球模式(ECMWF、NCEP-GFS、CMA-GFS)、三个区域模式(CMA-MESO、CMA-SH9、PWAFS)、本地客观预报和预报员主观预报,对2020年江苏主汛期(6—9月)中的短期暴雨预报总体性能进行检验,并按降水性质分稳定性暴雨和对流性暴雨分别进行了检验和个例展示。结果表明:从总体检验来看,预报员的暴雨主观预报仅在24 h时效内相比于ECMWF有TS评分正技巧,本地客观和预报员暴雨预报的TS评分>区域模式>除ECMWF以外的全球模式,且无论是全球模式还是区域模式,并非分辨率越高预报性能越好;区域模式的暴雨预报大多面积偏大,空报率较高;全球模式除ECMWF以外的暴雨预报大多面积偏小,漏报率较高;20时起报的CMA-MESO的预报性能明显好于08时起报的预报;对于稳定性暴雨预报,应重点参考ECMWF、48 h时效内的本地客观预报和20时起报的CMA-MESO;对于对流性暴雨预报,应重点参考区域模式CMA-SH9、PWAFS和24 h时效内的本地客观预报。The total performance of short-range torrential rain forecasts during the 2020 Jiangsu main flood season(June-September) is verified based on the three global models(ECMWF,NCEP-GFS,CMAGFS),three regional models(CMA-MESO,CMA-SH9,PWAFS),local objective forecast commonly used in Jiangsu operational forecast service and subjective forecast by forecasters.Verification and case analyses of stable and convective torrential rain forecast are also demonstrated respectively according to the types of precipitation.Results show that from the overall verification,the subjective torrential rain forecasts of forecasters only have positive TS skill compared to ECMWF within the 24 h forecast lead time.The torrential rain forecasts by local objective method and forecasters have TS>regional models>global models except ECMWF.It is not true that the higher model resolution,the better forecast performance for either global models or regional models.Most regional models have obviously larger torrential rain foreacst area and high false alarm ratio,while most global models except ECMWF have obviously smaller torrential rain forecast area and high miss rate.The CMA-MESO model initialized at 20:00 BT has obviously better forecast performance than that initialized at 08:00 BT.For stable torrential rain forecast,forecasters should take more references of the ECMWF forecasts,the local objective forecasts within 48 h lead time and the CMA-MESO forecasts initialized at 20:00 BT.As for convective torrential rain forecast,forecasters should refer to the region models CMA-SH9,PWAFS,and the 24 h local objective forecasts more.

关 键 词：暴雨 检验 稳定性降水 对流性降水 

分 类 号：P456[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]