基于MCCA的上海市土地利用结构变化预测及分析  

Prediction and Analysis on Land Use Structure Change in Shanghai Based on MCCA Model

作　　者：朱北宇 周侗[1] Zhu Beiyu;Zhou Dong(School of Geographical Sciences,Nantong University,Jiangsu Nantong 226007;school of economics and management,Nantong University,Jiangsu Nantong 226019,China)

机构地区：[1]南通大学地理科学学院,江苏南通226007 [2]南通大学经济与管理学院,江苏南通226019

出　　处：《国土与自然资源研究》2022年第3期33-35,共3页Territory & Natural Resources Study

摘　　要：城市土地利用结构的模拟预测,能够有效推测城市各类用地的增减趋势,支持城市的区域规划及政策制定。本文基于四期土地利用数据,结合社会经济与环境数据,运用MCCA模型预测了上海市2025年和2035年土地利用结构变化与分布情况。结果表明,建设用地未来将沿着“南—北”与“东南—西北”两条轴线向外扩张,建设用地的增加将会导致耕地总量降低,造成上海市土地利用多样性的持续下降。参照预测结果,本文从严守耕地红线,完善城市功能布局以及提高生态环境质量等三方面提出建议,以期实现上海市土地利用结构的优化。The simulation and prediction of urban land use structure can effectively present the increasing and decreasing trend of various types of urban land use, which has significant support for future regional planning and policy formulation. Based on the land use data of Shanghai, combined with socia-economic and environmental data, this paper uses MCCA model to predict the change and distribution of land use structure in 2025 and2035. The results show that the construction land will expand along the two axes of "south-north" and "southeast-northwest" in the future, and the increase of construction land will result in the loss of arable land, which will lead to the continuous decline of the overall land use diversity in Shanghai. According to the experimental result, this paper puts forwardsuggestions from three aspects, strictly guarding the arable land red line, perfecting the urban functional layout and improving the ecological environment quality, in order to realize the optimization of land use structure in Shanghai.

关 键 词：土地利用 MCCA模型 模拟预测 

分 类 号：F301.24[经济管理—产业经济]