WGDWS天气发生器在中国五大气候区的适用性  

Applicability of weather generator based on dry and wet spells(WGDWS)in five climate regions of China

作　　者：李世娟 刘升平[1,2] 诸叶平 张杰[1,2] Li Shijuan;Liu Shengping;Zhu Yeping;Zhang Jie(Key Laboratory of Agri-information Service Technology,Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs,Beijing 100081,China;Agricultural Information Institute,Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences,Beijing 100081,China)

机构地区：[1]农业农村部信息服务技术重点实验室,北京100081 [2]中国农业科学院农业信息研究所,北京100081

出　　处：《农业工程学报》2022年第3期75-83,共9页Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2016YFD0200600)。

摘　　要：为了检验基于干湿期的天气发生器(Weather Generator based on Dry and Wet Spells,WGDWS)在中国不同气候区的应用效果,该研究利用中国五大主要气候区16个站点57a的逐日天气数据,通过对比生成与实测气象要素统计值,及比较WGDWS与随机天气模拟器(Daily Weather Stochastic Simulator,DWSS)生成的气象要素统计值,测试WGDWS的可用性和准确性。显著性检验表明,WGDWS产生的每个气象要素的月值和干湿期长度与实测值相比没有显著差异。月最高、最低气温绝对误差≤0.5℃的站点比例分别达93.8%和96.4%,月降水日数绝对误差≤1d的站点比例达95.8%,月降水量绝对误差有91.7%的站点在10mm之内,月太阳总辐射绝对误差2MJ/m^(2)以内的站点比例达90.1%;月最长干期、最长湿期、平均干期、平均湿期的平均绝对误差分别为4.16、0.76、1.00、0.15d。WGDWS在温带季风和亚热带季风气候下的干湿期模拟效果优于温带大陆气候和热带季风气候。比较WGDWS和DWSS生成的逐日模拟序列的误差分布,月最高气温、月最低气温和月总太阳辐射的误差分布高度一致。WGDWS对月降水日数的模拟效果优于DWSS,即等概率条件下,WGDWS相对误差更小,而DWSS对月降水量的模拟效果优于WGDWS。因此,WGDWS能够准确反映长期干旱或长期阴雨天气的实际情况,可用于生成长序列逐日天气数据,以满足气候模型、水分模型和作物生理模型的需求。A weather generator can be defined as a statistical model for the daily sequences,usually considering the multiple weather variables,such as precipitation,radiation,humidity,and temperature.The conventional weather generator has been mostly used the dry and wet days as random variables.But,the generated time series can contain a relatively large error in the dry and wet spell,due mainly to the key variable of precipitation.Fortunately,a Weather Generator Using Dry and Wet Spells(WGDWS)can be served as a new weather generator,particularly for the dry and wet spells as random variables.In this study,the usability and accuracy of WGDWS were evaluated on the daily weather data from 16 stations located in five major climate regions of China.The statistical values of generated and measured meteorological variables and the statistical values generated by WGDWS and DWSS(a weather generator based on the dry and wet daily transition probability developed by the research group)were compared.A significance test was performed on the monthly values of each climate variable,and the dry-and wet-spell lengths generated by WGDWS.The results showed that there were no significant differences from the measured values.The WGDWS has been widely expected to generate a long series of daily weather data,thereby meeting the climate,moisture,and crop physiological models.Specifically,93.8%and 96.4%of the absolute errors in the monthly maximum and minimum temperatures were within 0.5°C of the measured values.Some 95.8%of the absolute errors were<1 d in the monthly rainfall days.Also,91.7%of monthly rainfall was<10 mm,where the absolute errors in the monthly rainfall were higher for the tropical and subtropical monsoon climates,exceeding 20 mm.The absolute error in 70.3%of the total monthly solar radiation was within 2 MJ/m^(2),where the error was larger(>4 MJ/m^(2))for the subtropical monsoon climate(Tengchong,Yunnan Province).According to the length of the wet and dry spells,the simulated values of the maximum monthly wet,average dry,and w

关 键 词：气象学 随机变量 降水 天气发生器 干湿期 WGDWS DWSS 

分 类 号：TP311[自动化与计算机技术—计算机软件与理论] S161[自动化与计算机技术—计算机科学与技术]