老年人居家养老服务需求意愿与行为悖离的原因分析  

The Cause of Paradoxical between Willingness and Behavior of Elderly People’s Demand for Home-based Care Services

作　　者：曾起艳 何志鹏 曾寅初[3] ZENG Qiyan;HE Zhipeng;ZENG Yinchu(Rural Revitalization of Zhejiang Province,Zhejiang A&F University,Hangzhou 311300,China;School of Economics and Management,Zhejiang A&F University,Hangzhou 311300,China;School of Agricultural Economics and Rural Development,Renmin University of China,Beijing 100872,China)

机构地区：[1]浙江农林大学浙江省乡村振兴研究院,浙江杭州311300 [2]浙江农林大学经济管理学院,浙江杭州311300 [3]中国人民大学农业与农村发展学院,北京100872

出　　处：《人口与经济》2022年第2期87-103,共17页Population & Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年项目“农村老年人居家养老服务的需求偏好与补贴策略研究”(72003178);国家自然科学基金重点项目“食品安全消费者行为与风险交流策略研究”(71633005)。

摘　　要：激活老年人居家养老服务的潜在需求是提高社会养老资源利用效率的必然要求。基于综合计划行为理论与态度—行为—情境理论构建的分析框架,利用2018年中国老年社会追踪调查数据,通过logit-ISM模型分析了老年人居家养老服务需求意愿与行为悖离的影响因素,并进一步探讨了各因素间的逻辑层次关系。结果表明,我国老年人居家养老服务的需求意愿与行为之间存在明显的悖离,近30%的老年人未将需求意愿转化为实际的利用行为。感知行为控制因素,家庭、社区与社会层面的情境因素,以及老年人的偏好因素能够很好地解释悖离产生的原因;提高老年人的收入水平和对居家养老服务的认知程度,增强家庭养老资源,增加社区养老服务供给和发放居家养老服务补贴均可显著降低悖离发生的概率,而老年人对传统养老模式偏好的淡化则可显著提高悖离发生的概率。其中,收入、家庭养老资源和社区居家养老服务供给水平是影响悖离的深层根源因素,通过居家养老服务补贴和健康状况等中间层间接因素,作用于居家养老服务认知度、传统养老模式偏好和社区居家养老服务利用率等表层直接驱动因素,最终影响到意愿和行为的悖离。Activating the potential demand of home-based care services for the elderly is an inevitable requirement to improve the utilization efficiency of social endowment resources.Based on an analytical framework according to the theory of planned behavior and Attitude-Behavior-Situation theory,this paper analyzed the influencing factors of the inconsistency between the elderly’s desire and behavior for home care service by logit-ISM model,using the data of China Longitudinal Aging Social Survey(CLASS)in 2018.The empirical results show that there is an obvious contradiction between the elderly’s demand willingness and adoption of home-based care services in China,where nearly 30%of the elderly didn’t convert the demand willingness into actual utilization behavior.The control factors of perceived behavior,situational factors of family,community,and society,as well as preference factors of the elderly can explain the causes of dissnonace.The probability of deviation can be significantly reduced by improving the elderly’s income level and cognition of home-based care services,enhancing family pension resources,increasing community pension service supply and providing home-based care service subsidies,while the weakening of the elderly’s preference for traditional pension mode can significantly increase the probability of deviation.Among them,income,family endowment resources and community home-based care services supply level are the root factors that affect the deviation.The intermediate indirect factors,such as home care subsidies and health status,act on the superficial direct factors,such as the recognition of home-based care service,the preference of traditional pension model,and the utilization rate of community home care service,and ultimately affect the inconsistency between willingness and behavior.

关 键 词：居家养老服务 意愿与行为的悖离 logit-ISM模型 计划行为理论 态度—行为—情境理论 

分 类 号：C913.6[经济管理]