“一带一路”倡议能否改善劳动力错配?--来自中国地级市的经验证据  

Can the“Belt and Road”Initiative Improve Labor Misallocation:Evidence from Prefecture-level Cities in China

作　　者：孙焱林[1] 李格 高达 SUN Yanlin;LI Ge;GAO Da(School of Economics,Huazhong University of Science and Technology,Wuhan 430074,China)

机构地区：[1]华中科技大学经济学院,湖北武汉430074

出　　处：《人口与经济》2022年第2期124-139,共16页Population & Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目“中国区域经济周期差异性、集群性和收敛性与区域梯级宏观调控机制研究”(20BJY012);国家自然科学基金青年项目“大维面板数据模型中存在序列相关性的截面相关性检验研究”(71703044)。

摘　　要：目前中国劳动力错配现象严重、人口红利逐渐消失,提高劳动力配置效率是中国经济转型的必经之路。在封闭条件下,劳动力配置效率的提高主要通过优化一国内部劳动力流动来实现,而在开放经济条件下,劳动力可以在全球范围内进行优化配置。文章旨在考察“一带一路”倡议这一深层次的对外开放是否有助于改善中国地区劳动力错配。基于2009—2018年中国267个地级市面板数据,通过双重差分法实证考察了“一带一路”倡议对中国地区劳动力错配的影响及机制。研究结果表明,“一带一路”倡议显著降低了地区劳动力错配水平,在采取倾向得分匹配法和一系列稳健性检验之后,这一结论仍然成立。机制分析表明,“一带一路”倡议能够通过市场规模机制改善劳动力错配,其中国际市场规模机制较为显著,而国内市场规模机制不显著。进一步研究发现,“一带一路”倡议对地区劳动力错配的改善效应在制度环境较好的地区更加显著。研究结论有以下政策启示:一是要鼓励出口、跨国投资及在海外设置分支机构等国际化行为,使劳动力要素通过商品出口、直接的跨国就业或间接的产业转移参与全球分工;二是要破除地方保护主义等市场分割障碍来更好地释放国内需求红利,充分利用国内大市场和“一带一路”带来的国际市场扩大,共同构建国内国际双循环的新发展格局;三是要特别注意推动国内市场化改革,不断完善制度环境,缩小寻租和投机空间,保障“一带一路”倡议对劳动力错配改善效应的发挥。With a serious labor misallocation and the gradual disappearance of demographic dividend,improving the efficiency of labor allocation is the only way for China’s economic transformation.Under closed conditions,the improvement of labor allocation efficiency is mainly achieved by optimizing labor flow within a country,while under open economy conditions,labor can be optimally allocated in a global scale.This paper aims to examine whether the“Belt and Road”Initiative,as a deeper level of opening up to the outside world,can help improve regional labor misallocation in China.Based on the panel data of 267 prefecture-level cities in China from 2009 to 2018,this paper empirically investigate the impact and mechanism of the“Belt and Road”Initiative on regional labor misallocation in China through the double difference method.The results show that the“Belt and Road”Initiative has significantly reduced the level of regional labor mismatch,and this conclusion still holds after adopting the propensity score matching method and a series of robustness tests.The mechanism analysis shows that the“Belt and Road”Initiative can improve labor misallocation through market scale mechanism,in which the international market size mechanism is more significant,but the domestic market size mechanism is not significant.Further study finds that the improvement effect of the“Belt and Road”Initiative on regional labor misallocation is more significant in regions with a better institutional environment.The findings of the study contain the following policy implications.Firstly,it is necessary to encourage internationalization such as export,cross-border investment and setting up branches overseas,so that labor factors can participate in the global division of labor through commodity exports,direct cross-border employment or indirect industrial transfer.Secondly,it is necessary to break local protectionism and other market segmentation barriers to better release the domestic demand dividend and make full use of the large do

关 键 词：“一带一路”倡议 劳动力错配 市场规模 制度环境 双重差分法 

分 类 号：F127[经济管理—世界经济] F242