Estimating the Economic Effects of the Early Covid-19Emergency Response in Cities Using Intracity Travel Intensity Data  

作　　者：Lijiao Yang Caiyun Wei Xinyu Jiang Qian Ye Hirokazu Tatano 

机构地区：[1]School of Management,Wuhan University of Technology,Wuhan 430070,China [2]Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875,China [3]Disaster Prevention Research Institute,Kyoto University,Kyoto 611-0011,Japan

出　　处：《International Journal of Disaster Risk Science》2022年第1期125-138,共14页国际灾害风险科学学报（英文版）

基　　金：supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China[Grant Number 41807504,41907393];Fundamental Research Funds for Central Universities[WUT 2020IVB023],China。

摘　　要：In the early days of the Covid-19 pandemic,China implemented the most stringent and serious emergency response.To understand the effect of such an emergency response strategy on the economic system,this study proposed a simultaneous overall estimation method using intracity travel intensity data.The overall effect is represented by the difference between intracity travel intensity with and without the emergency response.Using historical data and time series analysis,we compared intracity travel intensity post China’s implementation of the emergency response with predicted intracity travel intensity without such a response.The loss rates,defined by the proportion of intracity travel intensity loss,were calculated for 360 cities within 33 provincial-level regions in China based on data availability.We found that 30 days after the emergency response,21% of the cities saw over 80% recovery and 10% of the cities showed more than 90% recovery;45 days after the emergency response,more than 83% of the 360 cities witnessed 80% recovery.The correlation between gross domestic production loss rate and travel intensity loss rate was studied quantitatively to demonstrate the representativeness of the intracity travel intensity loss rate.This indicator was also used to analyze the spatial and temporal patterns of the effects on the economy.The results of this study can help us understand the economic effects caused by the early Covid-19 emergency response and the method can be a reference for fast and real-time economic loss estimation to support emergency response decision making under pandemic conditions.

关 键 词：China Covid-19 Emergency response Economic impact assessment Intracity travel intensity 

分 类 号：F127[经济管理—世界经济]