黄河中游河南段设计洪水及其地区组成研究  

Research on the Design Flood and Its Regional Composition in Henan Section of the Middle Reaches of the Yellow River

作　　者：程旭 马细霞[1] 肖遥[1,2] 王倩丽 CHENG Xu;MA Xi-xia;XIAO Yao;WANG Qian-li(School of Water Conservancy Engineering,Zhengzhou University,Zhengzhou 450001,China;China Water Northeastern Investigation,Design and Research Co.,Ltd.,Changchun 130021,China)

机构地区：[1]郑州大学水利科学与工程学院,郑州450001 [2]中水东北勘测设计研究有限责任公司,长春130021

出　　处：《中国农村水利水电》2022年第4期65-71,共7页China Rural Water and Hydropower

基　　金：河南省科技攻关项目(192102310228)。

摘　　要：传统的设计洪水推求方法假定洪峰和洪量为同频率,而没有考虑两个洪水要素之间的相关性;并且在推求特定重现期下设计洪水地区组成时,主观上从最不利的角度出发,无法定量地描述各分区洪水之间的相关程度。因此,引入Copula函数,在兼顾洪峰和洪量联合作用下,推求不同频率下的设计洪峰流量和洪量,进而得到不同频率的设计洪水过程;考虑各洪水分区与花园口断面之间的空间相关性,建立各地区洪水要素的边际分布并优选各地区洪水要素与设计断面洪水之间最适合的Copula函数,进而探寻最有可能的设计洪水地区组成关系。结果表明,本研究考虑洪水要素之间的相关性所得到设计结果略高于相同重现期下传统方法所推求的结果,并且可对该区域洪水地区组成进行定性又定量的描述,进而求得同时考虑洪水要素相关性和空间相关性的设计洪水结果,所得结果更具客观性,更符合本流域洪水分配的实际情况。The traditional design flood estimation method assumes that the flood peak and the flood volume are at the same frequency,without considering the correlation between the two flood characteristics. Furthermore,when the design flood region composition under a specific return period is estimated,although the traditional method is from the most unfavorable point of view,it is impossible to quantitatively describe the correlation between the floods in each subarea. Therefore,in this paper,Copula function is used to deduce the design flood peak and flood volume at different frequencies which consider the combined effects of flood peak and flood volume,and then obtains the design flood process at different frequencies. The marginal distribution of flood components in each area is established and the most suitable Copula function between components in each area and design section is preferred which consider the spatial correlation between each flood zone and Huayuankou section,and then explore the most likely design flood region composition. It shows that the design results obtained by considering the correlation between flood elements in this study are slightly higher than those deduced by traditional methods under the same return period. The method in this paper can qualitatively and quantitatively describe the design flood region composition in the study area so as to obtain the design flood results that consider both the correlation of flood characteristics and spatial correlation at the same time,which are more objective and more consistent with the actual situation of design flood region composition in the basin.

关 键 词：设计洪水 洪水要素 洪水地区组成 COPULA函数 花园口水文站 

分 类 号：TV122[水利工程—水文学及水资源] TV882.1