电价调整对宏观经济及产业结构的影响  

Impact of electricity price adjustment on macro economy and industrial structure

作　　者：李虹[1] 王帅 李晨光 陈挺 LI Hong;WANG shuai;LI Chenguang;CHEN Ting(School of Economics,Peking University,Beijing 100871,China;State Grid Energy Research Institute Co,Ltd,Beijing 102209,China)

机构地区：[1]北京大学经济学院,北京100871 [2]国网能源研究院有限公司,北京102209

出　　处：《资源科学》2022年第1期156-168,共13页Resources Science

基　　金：国家电网有限公司科技项目(1400-202057411A0000)。

摘　　要：近年来中国电价的普遍性、连续性下调可能诱导资源向高耗能产业聚集,不利于产业结构优化。本文使用可计算一般均衡(CGE)模型分别在电价管制和电价市场化两类情景下分析电价调整对高耗能产业及新动能产业的影响。研究发现:①对国民经济各行业的“普遍性降电价”会导致高耗能产业增加值占比出现较大幅度上升,而仅对新动能产业的“精准性降电价”可以在促进新动能产业发展的同时避免高耗能产业盲目过快增长。②若同时对高耗能产业提高差别电价等绿色电价加价标准,虽然有效降低了高耗能产业产出,但也会对新动能制造业产生不利影响。③若政府将电力行业利润或电力消费税收入用于补贴新动能产业投资,不仅可以培育壮大经济发展新动能,还可能产生社会福利上升的双重红利效应。因此,应对新动能产业“精准性降电价”,加大高耗能产业差别电价实施力度,进一步发挥电价杠杆作用。In recent years,the universal and continuous reduction of electricity prices in China may induce the concentration of resources in high energy-consuming industries.It is not conducive to the optimization of industrial structure.This study used the computable general equilibrium(CGE)model to analyze the impact of electricity price adjustment on the overall economy and the new kinetic energy industries under the assumption of electricity price regulation and electricity price marketization,respectively.The results show that:The universal reduction of electricity prices in various industries leads to a significant increase in the proportion of the added value of high energyconsuming industries.Targeted reduction of electricity prices for the new kinetic energy industries can promote the development of the new kinetic energy industries and avoid blind and excessive growth of the high energy-consuming industries.If the green electricity price standards such as differential electricity prices are raised for high energy-consuming industries,although the output of high energy-consuming industries is effectively reduced,it will also harm the new kinetic energy manufacturing industries.If the government uses the power industry profits or electricity consumption tax revenue to subsidize the new energy industry’s investment,it can not only cultivate the new kinetic energy of economic development but also produce the double dividend effect of social welfare improvement.Therefore,the government should“accurately reduce electricity prices”for new kinetic energy industries,strengthen the implementation of differential electricity prices for high energy-consuming industries,and further improve the role of electricity price leverage.

关 键 词：电价调整 新动能产业 高耗能产业 差别电价 双重红利 可计算一般均衡模型 中国 

分 类 号：F426.61[经济管理—产业经济] F124