基于MOS的广西北部湾沿海秋冬极大风速精细化预报  

Refined prediction of maximum wind speed in autumn and winter along the coast of Guangxi Beibu Gulf based on MOS

作　　者：潘静 陈峥蓉 黄燕波[2] 于潇 张雪波 何滨 Pan Jing;Chen Zhengrong;Huang Yanbo;Yu Xiao;Zhang Xuebo;He Bin(Qinzhou Meteorological Bureau,Qinzhou Guangxi 535000,China;Beihai Meteorological Bureau,Beihai Guangxi 536000,China)

机构地区：[1]钦州市气象局,广西钦州535000 [2]北海市气象局,广西北海536000

出　　处：《气象研究与应用》2022年第1期26-30,共5页Journal of Meteorological Research and Application

基　　金：广西气象局气象科研计划(桂气科2017Z07)、广西气象局气象科研计划(桂气科2016M19);钦州市科学研究与技术开发计划项目(20204113)。

摘　　要：采用北部湾北部沿海6个自动站实况资料和欧洲中心细网格数值预报产品,根据模式输出统计法(MOS),对广西北部湾地区2012年-2016冬半年(9月到次年2月)日极大风速建立站点秋冬季不同预报时效的多元线性回归方程,并用2017冬半年的数据进行TS检验评分。结果表明,秋冬季日极大风速和代表引导气流的500hPa蒙古槽、代表南北气压梯度强弱的地面气压差、代表南北温度梯度强弱的高空温度差、站点高空风速及相对湿度等因子有较大的相关性。冬季方程的预报效果普遍好于秋季,大庙墩岛、青菜头岛、双墩岛、斜阳岛冬季的预报方程各级风的正确率都在60%以上,涠洲岛和北海港的预报方程正确率较低,在60%以下。Based on the data of 6 automatic stations along the northern coast of Beibu Gulf and the fine grid numerical prediction products of ECMWF, according to the mode output statistical method(MOS), the multiple linear regression equations of different prediction time effects of stations in autumn and winter were established for the daily maximum wind speed in the winter half year(September to February) from 2012 to 2016 in Beibu Gulf of Guangxi. The TS test score was carried out with the data of the winter half year of 2017. The results show that the daily maximum wind speed in autumn and winter has a great correlation with the 500hPa Mongolian trough representing the guided air flow, the ground pressure difference representing the strength of the north-south pressure gradient, the high-altitude temperature difference representing the strength of the north-south temperature gradient, and the high-altitude wind speed and relative humidity of the station. The prediction effect of the winter equation is generally better than that in autumn. The winter prediction accuracy is better than autumn. The correct rate of all-level winds in the winter prediction equation is higher than 60% in Damiaodun Island, Qingcaitou Island, Shuangdun Island, and Xieyang Island 60%, while which in Weizhou Island and Beihai Port is less than 60%.

关 键 词：MOS方法 海上大风 日极大风速 多元线性回归 

分 类 号：P457.5[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]