城镇化背景下太湖流域极端降雨时空演变特征  

Spatio-temporal Variation Characteristics of Extreme Rainfall in Taihu Lake Basin Under Urbanization

作　　者：马嘉忆 董增川[1] 蒋飞卿 罗赟[1] 张天衍 MA Jia-yi;DONG Zeng-chuan;JIANG Fei-qing;LUO Yun;ZHANG Tian-yan(College of Hydrology and Water Resources,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China)

机构地区：[1]河海大学水文水资源学院,江苏南京210098

出　　处：《水电能源科学》2022年第3期1-4,21,共5页Water Resources and Power

基　　金：国家重点研发计划(2018YFC1508200)。

摘　　要：研究城镇化发展程度对极端降雨的影响对于指导高度城镇化地区防洪排涝工作意义重大。在太湖流域城镇化区域划分基础上,基于1965~2014年70个雨量站的日降雨数据,采用空间分析法、Mann-Kendall趋势检验法、线性回归法、滑动平均法等提取各站极端降雨特征,分析城镇化背景下太湖流域极端降雨时空演变规律。结果表明,太湖流域城镇化发展较快的区域主要集中在武澄锡虞区、阳澄淀泖区、浦东浦西区;浙西区年极端降雨量较大,武澄锡虞区、阳澄淀泖区、浦东浦西区极端降雨量则较其他地区呈显著增加趋势,分别上升34.5、38.2、31.7 mm/10a;全流域极端降雨事件增多、强度增大,其中城镇化发展高速地区由流域极端降雨频次低值区逐渐演变为高值区之一,极端降雨强度亦显著增加,表明其遭受洪涝灾害的风险增大。It is of great significance to study the influence of urbanization on extreme rainfall for guiding flood control and drainage in highly urbanized areas. Taking Taihu Lake Basin as an example, the daily rainfall data of 70 rainfall stations from 1965 to 2014 were collected. The methods such as spatial analysis, Mann-Kendall trend test, linear regression and sliding average were used to extract the characteristics of extreme rainfall, and analyze the temporal and spatial evolution of extreme rainfall in the Taihu Lake Basin under the background of urbanization. The results show that the regions with rapid urbanization development in the Taihu Lake Basin are mainly concentrated in Wuchengxiyu District, Yangchengdianmao District, and Pudongpuxi District. The annual extreme rainfall in Zhexi District is relatively large, while the annual extreme rainfall in Wuchengxiyu District, Yangchengdianmao District, and Puxipudong District show a significant upward trend compared with other areas, increasing by 34.5 mm/10 a, 38.2 mm/10 a, and 31.7 mm/10 a, respectively. In recent years, the extreme rainfall events and its intensity in Taihu Lake Basin have increased. Areas with rapid urbanization development gradually evolve from the areas with low frequency of extreme rainfall events to one of the highest ones, and the extreme rainfall intensity also appears upward trend, indicating that the risk of flood disasters in these areas increased.

关 键 词：极端降雨 城镇化 时空演变特征 太湖流域 

分 类 号：TV125[水利工程—水文学及水资源]